TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139856
Played Sep 17Finished
Artur Grela
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117119811811711
Jakub Kosowski
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:46 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Kosowski at 57.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 52–76 Jakub Kosowski Artur Grela has won 52 of their 128 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:46What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-76 in 128
Kosowski
Correct
gap of 24 in 128, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1927 vs Kosowski 1894
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Kosowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 70% vs Kosowski 40%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Kosowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kosowski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.50 / Kosowski 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kosowski)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13139856
Grela2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 108 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back32% 43 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
Kosowski1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 270 of 404
Up 2–0, closes it95% 130 of 137
Up 1–0, closes it86% 212 of 247
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela3wins
AwayKosowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela50%2 of 4
AwayKosowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Grela4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S3Grela4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S4Grela4Kosowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Grela1Kosowski3n = 4Kosowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaKosowskiG − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.1−2.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1247 vs 722 / 122550.9%58.9%635 / 1247 vs 722 / 1225Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiGrela 2.50/Kosowski 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 6 · 12:30A. Grela45111013113J. Kosowski419121191
LAug 6 · 08:30A. Grela49811111182J. Kosowski46115613113
LAug 5 · 09:00A. Grela301110721J. Kosowski4061211113
LAug 5 · 06:30A. Grela216870J. Kosowski331111113
LAug 1 · 13:20A. Grela47611111272J. Kosowski521113710113
LAug 1 · 05:15A. Grela4011117111J. Kosowski4471311133
WJul 14 · 14:10A. Grela471111311113J. Kosowski4659111382
LJul 14 · 07:20A. Grela52131191272J. Kosowski501531110113
LJun 15 · 10:00A. Grela2310490J. Kosowski341211113
WJun 15 · 06:55A. Grela46131111113J. Kosowski35156861
A. Grela10
WSep 17 · 12:55J. Zandecki1.7351111962A. Grela2.00115911113WSep 17 · 10:25A. Grela1.671111113G. Felkel2.103790WSep 17 · 09:40K. Wloczko2.50411461A. Grela1.5011411113LSep 17 · 08:30P. David1.571111113A. Grela2.254780LSep 17 · 07:20A. Grela1.91610110G. Felkel1.801112133WSep 17 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00115121192A. Grela1.73911145113WSep 17 · 04:55J. Zandecki1.8389100A. Grela1.831111123WSep 17 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.57141050A. Grela2.251612113LSep 10 · 13:45A. Grela1.80411741M. Jadczyk1.9111411113WSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela1.831171011113D. Michna1.8351112962
J. Kosowski10
WSep 17 · 10:50K. Wloczko2.5071111832J. Kosowski1.50119511113LSep 17 · 09:20P. David1.83114711113J. Kosowski1.8391111882WSep 17 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.831191011113M. Jadczyk1.8081112352WSep 17 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.7311911113J. Zandecki2.00711661LSep 17 · 04:10P. David1.8071111113J. Kosowski1.91117971LSep 17 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.57141050A. Grela2.251612113LSep 8 · 13:45J. Kosowski2.2044111282M. Olejnik1.611111410113WSep 8 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.361211113K. Wloczko3.0010980LSep 8 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.3311711142K. Kolodziej3.25911911113LSep 8 · 10:00T. Spanik2.201111113J. Kosowski1.619850
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Sep 17 · 13:45A. Grela1.61P. David2.20—Sep 18 · 03:00A. Grela2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Sep 18 · 04:10A. Grela2.00J. Zandecki1.73—Sep 18 · 05:40A. Grela1.44J. Kuzmicz2.63—Sep 18 · 06:55A. Grela1.80M. Olejnik1.91—Sep 18 · 08:30A. Grela2.50J. Kosowski1.50—Sep 18 · 12:30A. Grela2.00J. Zandecki1.73—Sep 18 · 13:45A. Grela2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Sep 18 · 15:00A. Grela2.50J. Kosowski1.50—
J. Kosowski
Sep 17 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Sep 18 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Sep 18 · 04:55J. Kosowski1.61J. Kuzmicz2.20—Sep 18 · 06:05J. Kosowski1.91M. Olejnik1.80—Sep 18 · 07:20J. Kosowski1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Sep 18 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.50A. Grela2.50—Sep 18 · 10:50J. Kosowski1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Sep 18 · 11:40J. Kosowski1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Sep 18 · 14:10J. Kosowski1.61J. Kuzmicz2.20—Sep 18 · 15:00J. Kosowski1.50A. Grela2.50—
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