TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133345
Played Sep 15Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171141412––––
Karol Jablonski
Away
2.34
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1171141412––––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 6–3 Karol Jablonski Karol Jablonski has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Jablonski beat Skotniczny 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:27What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1419 vs Jablonski 1416
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 60% vs Jablonski 100%
Jablonski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 50% vs Jablonski 80%
Jablonski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny -1 · Jablonski +5
Jablonski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jablonski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.48 / Jablonski 2.34
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Skotniczny)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13133345
Skotniczny1.48
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 207 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it96% 108 of 113
Up 1–0, closes it82% 156 of 190
Jablonski2.34
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSkotniczny6wins
AwayJablonski3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny71.4%5 of 7
AwayJablonskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny7Jablonski2n = 9Skotniczny took 7 of 9
S2Skotniczny5Jablonski4n = 9Skotniczny took 5 of 9
S3Skotniczny5Jablonski4n = 9Skotniczny took 5 of 9
S4Skotniczny4Jablonski3n = 7Skotniczny took 4 of 7
S5Skotniczny2Jablonski2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyJablonskiS − JBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match43.636.7+6.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime597 / 1034 vs 77 / 16457.7%47%597 / 1034 vs 77 / 164Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.48/Jablonski 2.34
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny529101111112K. Jablonski50111268133
WApr 3 · 11:55R. Skotniczny48116119113K. Jablonski4281171152
WApr 3 · 05:55R. Skotniczny51971311113K. Jablonski48111111962
WDec 29 · 14:30R. Skotniczny331111113K. Jablonski216780
WDec 29 · 08:30R. Skotniczny331111113K. Jablonski227870
LAug 21 · 14:45R. Skotniczny521111119102K. Jablonski53891311123
LAug 21 · 11:05R. Skotniczny3911710111K. Jablonski3931112133
WJul 22 · 14:20R. Skotniczny45111112113K. Jablonski28481421
WJul 22 · 06:20R. Skotniczny3911116113K. Jablonski27381151
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 15 · 15:05M. Adamus2.374121111113R. Skotniczny1.51111013332WSep 15 · 14:20L. Oracz1.8612780R. Skotniczny1.831411113WSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091WSep 15 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.751111133R. Gajda1.9888110LSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:05M. Adamus2.301112123R. Skotniczny1.55910100LSep 15 · 08:20R. Gajda2.22912118113R. Skotniczny1.54111071162WSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391WSep 15 · 06:20R. Skotniczny1.861112113L. Oracz1.8051060LSep 12 · 08:20R. Skotniczny1.839990K. Adamus1.811111113
K. Jablonski10
WSep 15 · 15:55M. Durda1.2811149792K. Jablonski3.408121111113WSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113WSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113WSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113WSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550LSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131WSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113WSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133WSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.