TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133352
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.28
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181412911711911
Karol Jablonski
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
1181412911711911
H2H Michal Durda 1–0 Karol Jablonski Karol Jablonski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Durda beat Jablonski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Durda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Durda 1531 vs Jablonski 1402
Durda
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 40% vs Jablonski 80%
Jablonski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 30% vs Jablonski 70%
Jablonski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda -3 · Jablonski +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jablonski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.28 / Jablonski 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Durda)-0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13133352
Durda1.28
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite77% won 183 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it98% 91 of 93
Up 1–0, closes it92% 129 of 141
Jablonski3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 31 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDurda1wins
AwayJablonski0wins
Durda leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDurdaJablonskiD − JBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.015.0+18.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaJablonskiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 258 vs 76 / 16376.4%46.6%197 / 258 vs 76 / 163Avg sets wonper match2.51.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.28/Jablonski 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.6%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jablonski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda331111113K. Jablonski155550
M. Durda10
WSep 15 · 17:05L. Oracz2.205740M. Durda1.601111113LSep 15 · 14:45R. Gajda3.3011148113M. Durda1.268121121LSep 15 · 13:30R. Skotniczny2.2581412113M. Durda1.5711121091LSep 15 · 11:55M. Adamus2.6511119113M. Durda1.40891161WSep 15 · 11:05R. Gajda3.309790M. Durda1.261111113WSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550WSep 15 · 08:45L. Oracz2.3038100M. Durda1.551111123LSep 15 · 07:30R. Skotniczny2.2011611113M. Durda1.57711391LSep 15 · 05:55M. Adamus2.6012113113M. Durda1.421071181LSep 8 · 14:20W. Urban3.4011811133M. Durda1.309117111
K. Jablonski10
LSep 15 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.481111143K. Jablonski2.3474120WSep 15 · 13:55M. Adamus1.8301251182K. Jablonski1.831110118113WSep 15 · 13:10R. Gajda1.7561070K. Jablonski1.951112113WSep 15 · 11:30L. Oracz1.85118101272K. Jablonski1.809111210113WSep 15 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.489101111112K. Jablonski2.34111268133LSep 15 · 09:55M. Durda1.231111113K. Jablonski3.505550LSep 15 · 07:55M. Adamus1.8381112153K. Jablonski1.8311810131WSep 15 · 07:10L. Oracz1.80911991K. Jablonski1.8511611113WSep 15 · 05:30R. Gajda1.7494110K. Jablonski1.951111133WSep 10 · 16:40J. Pelka1.8311191172K. Jablonski1.81119116113
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