TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131355
Played Sep 15Finished
Gregory Kuzmenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214811114117611
Ihor Sukovatyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeIhor Sukovatyi to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGregory Kuzmenko above · Ihor Sukovatyi below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 95 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ihor Sukovatyi at 54.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Gregory Kuzmenko 4–12 Ihor Sukovatyi Gregory Kuzmenko has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:39What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sukovatyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-12 in 16
Sukovatyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmenko 1800 vs Sukovatyi 1699
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmenko 60% vs Sukovatyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmenko 80% vs Sukovatyi 50%
Kuzmenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmenko +2 · Sukovatyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sukovatyi) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmenko 2.10 / Sukovatyi 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sukovatyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13131355
Kuzmenko2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 58 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Sukovatyi1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 170 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it97% 92 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it82% 131 of 160
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmenko4wins
AwaySukovatyi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSukovatyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmenko50%2 of 4
AwaySukovatyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmenko4Sukovatyi6n = 10Sukovatyi took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmenko3Sukovatyi7n = 10Sukovatyi took 7 of 10
S3Kuzmenko6Sukovatyi4n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S4Kuzmenko3Sukovatyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmenkoSukovatyiK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.936.2−4.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmenkoSukovatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 554 vs 273 / 50150%54.5%277 / 554 vs 273 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SukovatyiKuzmenko 2.10/Sukovatyi 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sukovatyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sukovatyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko331111113I. Sukovatyi249870
LSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko28931151I. Sukovatyi3611113113
LAug 29 · 23:15G. Kuzmenko104240I. Sukovatyi331111113
WAug 27 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko331111113I. Sukovatyi169430
WAug 26 · 12:35G. Kuzmenko3961111113I. Sukovatyi31119831
WAug 22 · 20:15G. Kuzmenko58882011113I. Sukovatyi58111118992
LJun 10 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko42113711102I. Sukovatyi48611118123
LMar 29 · 21:45G. Kuzmenko29114591I. Sukovatyi4291111113
LMar 11 · 13:05G. Kuzmenko30961141I. Sukovatyi4111118113
LMar 11 · 03:30G. Kuzmenko174850I. Sukovatyi331111113
G. Kuzmenko10
WSep 15 · 21:30G. Kuzmenko3.001111123A. Romanenko1.3648100WSep 15 · 20:00G. Kuzmenko1.6111812123V. Krokhmal2.2091110101LSep 8 · 02:00I. Hrekh2.251111113G. Kuzmenko1.577850WSep 8 · 01:00G. Kuzmenko1.671111123V. Slozka2.1079100LSep 8 · 24:00G. Kuzmenko2.206111081M. Loboda1.6111912113WSep 7 · 22:30G. Kuzmenko1.671210116113R. Konkulovskyi2.10101241172WSep 7 · 20:30G. Kuzmenko1.61581111113V. Krokhmal2.2011116292WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870WSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031
I. Sukovatyi10
WSep 15 · 22:00I. Sukovatyi1.57211115113V. Krokhmal2.2511641192WSep 15 · 21:00B. Chaikovskyi1.838101271I. Sukovatyi1.83111210113LSep 13 · 01:14I. Sukovatyi1.671021151A. Romanenko2.1012116113LSep 13 · 24:15I. Sukovatyi2.756101361O. Pohonov1.40111211113WSep 12 · 23:15R. Konkulovskyi2.0011711442I. Sukovatyi1.73711611113WSep 12 · 22:15A. Romanenko2.10611651I. Sukovatyi1.6711611113LSep 12 · 20:45B. Chaikovskyi1.83411811113I. Sukovatyi1.8311911662LSep 10 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi1.9111114113I. Sukovatyi1.80661171LSep 10 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.4011115133I. Sukovatyi2.759911111LSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870
Upcoming Matches
G. Kuzmenko
I. Sukovatyi
Sep 16 · 01:00I. Sukovatyi1.73R. Konkulovskyi2.00—Sep 16 · 03:00I. Sukovatyi1.67A. Romanenko2.10—Sep 16 · 13:05I. Sukovatyi1.73G. Kuzmenko2.00—Sep 16 · 14:35I. Sukovatyi1.83B. Chaikovskyi1.83—Sep 16 · 15:35I. Sukovatyi1.67A. Romanenko2.10—Sep 16 · 16:35I. Sukovatyi1.61I. Hrekh2.20—Sep 16 · 18:35I. Sukovatyi2.75O. Pohonov1.40—
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