TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13126704
Played Sep 14Finished
Polina Pashchenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511117811117611
Svitlana Yureneva
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSvitlana Yureneva to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPolina Pashchenko above · Svitlana Yureneva below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 88 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Svitlana Yureneva at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Polina Pashchenko 4–11 Svitlana Yureneva Polina Pashchenko has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 21:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Yureneva
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Yureneva
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pashchenko 1619 vs Yureneva 1494
Pashchenko
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pashchenko 80% vs Yureneva 40%
Pashchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pashchenko 50% vs Yureneva 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pashchenko -1 · Yureneva +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Yureneva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Yureneva form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPashchenko 2.10 / Yureneva 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pashchenko)+1.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #13126704
Pashchenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 19 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back21% 4 of 19
Yureneva1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 123 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it93% 68 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it88% 97 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePashchenko3wins
AwayYureneva7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderYureneva leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePashchenko50%2 of 4
AwayYureneva83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pashchenko4Yureneva6n = 10Yureneva took 6 of 10
S2Pashchenko3Yureneva7n = 10Yureneva took 7 of 10
S3Pashchenko3Yureneva7n = 10Yureneva took 7 of 10
S4Pashchenko3Yureneva3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPashchenkoYurenevaP − YBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.038.7−3.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPashchenkoYurenevaBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 138 vs 355 / 58954.4%60.3%75 / 138 vs 355 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PashchenkoPashchenko 2.10/Yureneva 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Yureneva · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yureneva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 10:40P. Pashchenko4114411123S. Yureneva3812115101
WSep 1 · 06:30P. Pashchenko44641112113S. Yureneva40111141042
LAug 21 · 07:00P. Pashchenko173770S. Yureneva331111113
LAug 4 · 05:30P. Pashchenko44117511102S. Yureneva45711114123
LJul 30 · 05:30P. Pashchenko209470S. Yureneva331111113
LJul 21 · 11:00P. Pashchenko351211751S. Yureneva4314711113
LJul 12 · 05:05P. Pashchenko36119881S. Yureneva3741111113
LJul 1 · 06:05P. Pashchenko3417890S. Yureneva411911113
LJun 21 · 10:36P. Pashchenko449141561S. Yureneva51111217113
WJun 21 · 07:35P. Pashchenko351311113S. Yureneva2611960
P. Pashchenko10
LSep 14 · 04:30P. Pashchenko1.731110531A. Rzhevska2.0081211113WSep 13 · 17:10V. Kurtenko1.83811411P. Pashchenko1.8311811103WSep 13 · 16:10A. Rzhevska1.83713841P. Pashchenko1.83111111113WSep 13 · 14:40U. Dronova1.91513971P. Pashchenko1.80111111113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Kurtenko1.50111051182P. Pashchenko2.50712119113WSep 13 · 10:40S. Yureneva1.5312115101P. Pashchenko2.3814411123LSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113LSep 10 · 08:30P. Pashchenko2.25711981R. Budnyk1.5711611113LSep 10 · 07:00P. Pashchenko6.50911741I. Yevtodii1.1011911113
S. Yureneva10
WSep 14 · 05:00V. Kurtenko1.67113951S. Yureneva2.1041111113LSep 13 · 16:40S. Yureneva3.00912971U. Dronova1.36111011113LSep 13 · 15:10S. Yureneva2.00117781V. Kurtenko1.7361111113LSep 13 · 13:40S. Yureneva4.338880A. Kurtenko1.201111103WSep 13 · 12:10S. Yureneva1.611111143A. Rzhevska2.2094120LSep 13 · 10:40S. Yureneva1.5312115101P. Pashchenko2.3814411123WSep 1 · 11:30S. Yureneva1.221181111113A. Plashchynska4.0081113452LSep 1 · 09:30V. Kurtenko1.911111113S. Yureneva1.804770WSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113LSep 1 · 06:30S. Yureneva1.44111141042P. Pashchenko2.63641112113
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