TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #13126688
Played Sep 14Finished
Polina Pashchenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1181012511311––
Anna Rzhevska
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timePolina Pashchenko to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPolina Pashchenko above · Anna Rzhevska below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Polina Pashchenko at 55.1%
71 points played in total.
H2H Polina Pashchenko 8–6 Anna Rzhevska Anna Rzhevska has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 12h before this match
Pashchenko beat Rzhevska 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Pashchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Pashchenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pashchenko 1633 vs Rzhevska 1588
Pashchenko
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pashchenko 100% vs Rzhevska 60%
Pashchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pashchenko 60% vs Rzhevska 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pashchenko +5 · Rzhevska +1
Pashchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Pashchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pashchenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPashchenko 1.73 / Rzhevska 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Pashchenko)+1.4pp
Setka Cup Women · #13126688
Pashchenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 50 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 39 of 47
Rzhevska2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 36 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back29% 14 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePashchenko7wins
AwayRzhevska3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPashchenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePashchenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayRzhevska66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pashchenko7Rzhevska3n = 10Pashchenko took 7 of 10
S2Pashchenko5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S3Pashchenko6Rzhevska4n = 10Pashchenko took 6 of 10
S4Pashchenko3Rzhevska1n = 4Pashchenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPashchenkoRzhevskaP − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.331.5+2.8per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPashchenkoRzhevskaBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 137 vs 150 / 27254.7%55.2%75 / 137 vs 150 / 272Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PashchenkoPashchenko 1.73/Rzhevska 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Pashchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rzhevska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 16:10P. Pashchenko44111111113A. Rzhevska32713841
WSep 10 · 05:00P. Pashchenko4714911133A. Rzhevska4112117111
LSep 9 · 06:00P. Pashchenko111640A. Rzhevska331111113
WSep 1 · 04:30P. Pashchenko331111113A. Rzhevska208480
LAug 21 · 08:30P. Pashchenko29117291A. Rzhevska4071111113
WAug 4 · 09:28P. Pashchenko571511911113A. Rzhevska4817811932
WAug 4 · 04:30P. Pashchenko361111143A. Rzhevska2888120
WAug 2 · 13:10P. Pashchenko321111103A. Rzhevska176560
LJul 30 · 11:00P. Pashchenko219750A. Rzhevska331111113
WJun 26 · 07:00P. Pashchenko331111113A. Rzhevska239770
P. Pashchenko10
WSep 13 · 17:10V. Kurtenko1.83811411P. Pashchenko1.8311811103WSep 13 · 16:10A. Rzhevska1.83713841P. Pashchenko1.83111111113WSep 13 · 14:40U. Dronova1.91513971P. Pashchenko1.80111111113WSep 13 · 12:40A. Kurtenko1.50111051182P. Pashchenko2.50712119113WSep 13 · 10:40S. Yureneva1.5312115101P. Pashchenko2.3814411123LSep 10 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.221111113P. Pashchenko4.007150LSep 10 · 09:30P. Pashchenko6.50117531A. Ovriakh1.1081111113LSep 10 · 08:30P. Pashchenko2.25711981R. Budnyk1.5711611113LSep 10 · 07:00P. Pashchenko6.50911741I. Yevtodii1.1011911113WSep 10 · 05:00P. Pashchenko1.9114911133A. Rzhevska1.8012117111
A. Rzhevska10
WSep 13 · 17:40A. Kurtenko1.80129911162A. Rzhevska1.911011118183LSep 13 · 16:10A. Rzhevska1.83713841P. Pashchenko1.83111111113WSep 13 · 14:10V. Kurtenko3.00119591A. Rzhevska1.3671111103LSep 13 · 12:10S. Yureneva1.611111143A. Rzhevska2.2094120WSep 13 · 11:10U. Dronova2.10512871A. Rzhevska1.67111011113LSep 10 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.1412611113A. Rzhevska5.001011451WSep 10 · 10:00A. Rzhevska2.501211133R. Budnyk1.50105110WSep 10 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.251111461A. Rzhevska3.7591311113LSep 10 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.504740LSep 10 · 05:00P. Pashchenko1.9114911133A. Rzhevska1.8012117111
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