TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13116019
Played Sep 11Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191191012113––
Roman Buric
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:05 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Roman Buric below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 76 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 59.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 3–0 Roman Buric Roman Buric has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vaclavik beat Buric 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Vaclavik
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1250 vs Buric 1089
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 161 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 80% vs Buric 40%
Vaclavik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 60% vs Buric 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik +3 · Buric -2
Vaclavik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.58 / Buric 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Vaclavik)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13116019
Vaclavik1.58
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 34 of 40
Buric2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog18% won 3 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeVaclavik3wins
AwayBuric0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderVaclavik leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik1Buric2n = 3Buric took 2 of 3
S2Vaclavik3Buric0n = 3Vaclavik took 3 of 3
S3Vaclavik2Buric1n = 3Vaclavik took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricVaclavikBuricV − BBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.033.7+10.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikBuricBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 182 vs 28 / 7154.4%39.4%99 / 182 vs 28 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.58/Buric 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.2%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 11 · 15:30M. Vaclavik—711911113R. Buric—11511342
WMay 23 · 11:30M. Vaclavik—1113143R. Buric—611120
WMay 9 · 02:00M. Vaclavik—81214113R. Buric—11101251
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 11 · 16:00M. Vaclavik1.501212113J. Hyrsl2.50101050WSep 11 · 15:30R. Buric3.0011511342M. Vaclavik1.36711911113WSep 11 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.6181111123J. Strnad2.201198101LSep 8 · 09:30M. Vaclavik1.4045111192M. Smesny2.75111174113WSep 8 · 08:00M. Vaclavik1.50118914113L. Novotny2.50911111272WSep 8 · 07:30M. Smesny2.385760M. Vaclavik1.531111113LSep 8 · 06:00M. Vaclavik1.407121091A. Hejduk2.75111012113LSep 7 · 13:00M. Vaclavik2.756950M. Regner1.401111113WSep 7 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.61771111113D. Mutl2.2011116852LSep 7 · 11:30M. Regner1.611111113M. Vaclavik2.205540
R. Buric10
LSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad2.3811912113R. Buric1.537111071LSep 11 · 15:30R. Buric3.0011511342M. Vaclavik1.36711911113WSep 11 · 14:30J. Hyrsl1.443511111R. Buric2.6311112133WMay 23 · 13:08M. Hubka1.50961191R. Buric2.5011115113LMay 23 · 12:30J. Cernik1.67914511133R. Buric2.101112115112LMay 23 · 11:30R. Buric2.20611120M. Vaclavik1.611113143LMay 23 · 10:30M. Hubka1.801111113R. Buric1.918270WMay 17 · 09:30L. Novotny3.008190R. Buric1.321111113WMay 17 · 08:00R. Buric1.33511811123L. Novotny3.25116117102WMay 17 · 07:30V. Kubat2.207390R. Buric1.611111113
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