TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115947
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomasz Filbrandt
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118115118––
Marcin Marchlewski
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomasz Filbrandt to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomasz Filbrandt above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomasz Filbrandt at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomasz Filbrandt 28–27 Marcin Marchlewski Marcin Marchlewski has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Filbrandt beat Marchlewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:34What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marchlewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filbrandt 1530 vs Marchlewski 1583
Marchlewski
Wrong
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filbrandt 20% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filbrandt 20% vs Marchlewski 40%
Marchlewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filbrandt -2 · Marchlewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filbrandt form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilbrandt 1.91 / Marchlewski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marchlewski)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13115947
Filbrandt1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 60 of 185
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 57
Marchlewski1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 111 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it80% 81 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilbrandt5wins
AwayMarchlewski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilbrandt60%3 of 5
AwayMarchlewski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filbrandt5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S2Filbrandt5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Filbrandt5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S4Filbrandt5Marchlewski5n = 10split evenly
S5Filbrandt2Marchlewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilbrandtMarchlewskiF − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.2+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilbrandtMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime687 / 1292 vs 451 / 93653.2%48.2%687 / 1292 vs 451 / 936Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiFilbrandt 1.91/Marchlewski 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Filbrandt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 18:05T. Filbrandt4211911113M. Marchlewski31311891
WAug 7 · 16:55T. Filbrandt50111189113M. Marchlewski4093111162
WAug 2 · 23:20T. Filbrandt41124112123M. Marchlewski471011511102
LAug 2 · 20:30T. Filbrandt31117761M. Marchlewski4291111113
WJul 25 · 23:35T. Filbrandt4291111113M. Marchlewski30115681
LJul 25 · 21:20T. Filbrandt38911991M. Marchlewski4211911113
LJul 18 · 24:20T. Filbrandt4289111132M. Marchlewski49111188113
WJul 17 · 22:05T. Filbrandt49111611113M. Marchlewski401314761
LJul 17 · 16:55T. Filbrandt4071110121M. Marchlewski4311612143
LJun 27 · 23:35T. Filbrandt4411771182M. Marchlewski48811117113
T. Filbrandt10
LSep 12 · 21:50T. Filbrandt2.1091191182D. Jadam1.67117118113LSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113WSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113LSep 12 · 19:15T. Filbrandt1.53411111172M. Kolek2.38118913113LSep 12 · 18:05P. Jendrzejewski1.8311211113T. Filbrandt1.83611891LSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192LSep 12 · 15:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113T. Filbrandt2.259470LSep 12 · 24:20P. Jendrzejewski1.831111113T. Filbrandt1.839980LSep 11 · 23:35K. Staszczyk2.1011111113T. Filbrandt1.67881181WSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941
M. Marchlewski10
WSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113LSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski1.53811971M. Marchlewski2.3811311113LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113LSep 12 · 16:05M. Marchlewski3.40118471J. Kuzmicz1.3081111113WSep 12 · 15:00M. Marchlewski1.731011115113M. Kolek2.0012561162LSep 12 · 01:30K. Staszczyk1.73119119123M. Marchlewski2.00911511102LSep 11 · 23:15T. Filbrandt1.9111911113M. Marchlewski1.80511941
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