TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110045
Played Sep 11Finished
Vojtech Svechota
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1198111618117112
Radim Urbaniec
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVojtech Svechota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Svechota above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 104 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Vojtech Svechota at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Svechota 15–5 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Svechota beat Urbaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Svechota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Svechota
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svechota 1761 vs Urbaniec 1754
Svechota
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svechota 80% vs Urbaniec 20%
Svechota
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svechota 50% vs Urbaniec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svechota +4 · Urbaniec -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Svechota) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urbaniec form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvechota 1.36 / Urbaniec 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Svechota)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110045
Svechota1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 64 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 47 of 56
Urbaniec3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 471
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvechota8wins
AwayUrbaniec2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSvechota leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvechota77.8%7 of 9
AwayUrbaniecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svechota9Urbaniec1n = 10Svechota took 9 of 10
S2Svechota6Urbaniec4n = 10Svechota took 6 of 10
S3Svechota6Urbaniec4n = 10Svechota took 6 of 10
S4Svechota6Urbaniec2n = 8Svechota took 6 of 8
S5Svechota1Urbaniec2n = 3Urbaniec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvechotaUrbaniecS − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.833.2+9.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvechotaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 329 vs 622 / 122358.1%50.9%191 / 329 vs 622 / 1223Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvechotaSvechota 1.36/Urbaniec 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Svechota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svechota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 12:30V. Svechota—1181611113R. Urbaniec—91118722
WSep 11 · 08:30V. Svechota—91111113R. Urbaniec—117681
LAug 20 · 01:30V. Svechota—121112892R. Urbaniec—1061411113
WAug 10 · 01:00V. Svechota—111210113R. Urbaniec—4101291
LJul 12 · 13:29V. Svechota—11711692R. Urbaniec—311711113
WJul 12 · 12:30V. Svechota—1111113R. Urbaniec—2950
WJul 7 · 24:30V. Svechota—11411113R. Urbaniec—911841
WJun 19 · 11:30V. Svechota—11711113R. Urbaniec—411271
WJun 19 · 07:00V. Svechota—111113113R. Urbaniec—381551
WMay 25 · 23:30V. Svechota—1111113R. Urbaniec—7580
V. Svechota10
LSep 11 · 13:30V. Svechota1.658580J. Ruzicka2.101111113WSep 11 · 11:00V. Svechota1.731111113113J. Ruzicka2.0091361122WSep 11 · 10:00O. Kolisnyk1.7341212872V. Svechota2.0011101011113WSep 11 · 09:30A. Barton1.654118121V. Svechota2.1011711143WSep 11 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.75117681V. Svechota1.4091111113LSep 11 · 07:30V. Svechota1.9161290A. Barton1.801114113WSep 11 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.83871191V. Svechota1.8311119113LAug 20 · 03:00J. Ruzicka1.501111113V. Svechota2.509560LAug 20 · 02:30V. Svechota1.679880M. Huk2.101111113LAug 20 · 01:30R. Urbaniec3.001061411113V. Svechota1.36121112892
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 11 · 13:00R. Urbaniec1.9110260O. Kolisnyk1.801211113WSep 11 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.831111113O. Kolisnyk1.837680LSep 11 · 10:30J. Ruzicka1.5751111113R. Urbaniec2.25116591LSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.10611791J. Ruzicka1.6711311113LSep 11 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.75117681V. Svechota1.4091111113WSep 11 · 07:00R. Urbaniec2.501111113J. Ruzicka1.508990LSep 11 · 06:00A. Barton1.4011118113R. Urbaniec2.75471181WSep 10 · 17:30R. Urbaniec1.657111111113A. Brazda2.1011136462WSep 10 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.73127711113O. Svacha2.00101111672WAug 20 · 01:30R. Urbaniec3.001061411113V. Svechota1.36121112892
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