TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13109802
Played Sep 11Finished
Jiri Ruzicka
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511116115119––
Radim Urbaniec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Radim Urbaniec below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 58.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 43–27 Radim Urbaniec Radim Urbaniec has won 27 of their 70 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Ruzicka beat Urbaniec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:53What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-27 in 70
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 16 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1725 vs Urbaniec 1768
Urbaniec
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Urbaniec 40%
Urbaniec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 60% vs Urbaniec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Urbaniec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.57 / Urbaniec 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13109802
Ruzicka1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 191 of 334
Up 2–0, closes it95% 104 of 110
Up 1–0, closes it75% 138 of 184
Urbaniec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 191 of 471
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 264
Down 0–2, comes back5% 7 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka7wins
AwayUrbaniec3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%4 of 4
AwayUrbaniec50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Urbaniec6n = 10Urbaniec took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka7Urbaniec3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka5Urbaniec5n = 10split evenly
S4Ruzicka4Urbaniec1n = 5Ruzicka took 4 of 5
S5Ruzicka3Urbaniec1n = 4Ruzicka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecR − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.6+1.7per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaUrbaniecBasisWin rate · lifetime674 / 1393 vs 622 / 122148.4%50.9%674 / 1393 vs 622 / 1221Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.57/Urbaniec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 09:00J. Ruzicka—11311113R. Urbaniec—611791
LSep 11 · 07:00J. Ruzicka—8990R. Urbaniec—1111113
WSep 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka—411416113R. Urbaniec—115111482
LSep 9 · 15:30J. Ruzicka—82120R. Urbaniec—1111143
WSep 8 · 10:00J. Ruzicka—911114113R. Urbaniec—11671172
LSep 8 · 06:30J. Ruzicka—91181172R. Urbaniec—119115113
WAug 29 · 12:30J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Urbaniec—6890
WAug 29 · 09:00J. Ruzicka—911411113R. Urbaniec—11411962
WAug 29 · 08:30J. Ruzicka—1111143R. Urbaniec—76120
WAug 28 · 24:00J. Ruzicka—1114113R. Urbaniec—71280
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 11 · 13:30V. Svechota1.658580J. Ruzicka2.101111113WSep 11 · 12:00O. Kolisnyk2.10911110J. Ruzicka1.671113133LSep 11 · 11:00V. Svechota1.731111113113J. Ruzicka2.0091361122WSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.10611791J. Ruzicka1.6711311113LSep 11 · 08:00A. Barton1.5312118113J. Ruzicka2.381071111LSep 11 · 07:00R. Urbaniec2.501111113J. Ruzicka1.508990LSep 11 · 06:30J. Ruzicka1.83871191V. Svechota1.8311119113LSep 10 · 03:30J. Ruzicka1.801371251M. Wagner1.90111114113WSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122WSep 10 · 01:30O. Svacha1.91791281J. Ruzicka1.80111110113
R. Urbaniec10
LSep 11 · 13:00R. Urbaniec1.9110260O. Kolisnyk1.801211113LSep 11 · 12:30V. Svechota1.361181611113R. Urbaniec3.0091118722WSep 11 · 11:30R. Urbaniec1.831111113O. Kolisnyk1.837680LSep 11 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.10611791J. Ruzicka1.6711311113LSep 11 · 08:30R. Urbaniec2.75117681V. Svechota1.4091111113WSep 11 · 07:00R. Urbaniec2.501111113J. Ruzicka1.508990LSep 11 · 06:00A. Barton1.4011118113R. Urbaniec2.75471181WSep 10 · 17:30R. Urbaniec1.657111111113A. Brazda2.1011136462WSep 10 · 16:30R. Urbaniec1.73127711113O. Svacha2.00101111672WSep 10 · 15:00R. Urbaniec1.40141111113A. Brazda2.75167581
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