TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13107557
Played Sep 10Finished
Jiri Ruzicka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
13117111214511––
Mark Robin Wagner
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Ruzicka above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 84 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jiri Ruzicka at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Ruzicka 1–0 Mark Robin Wagner Mark Robin Wagner has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Ruzicka beat Wagner 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1769 vs Wagner 1732
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 100% vs Wagner 60%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 70% vs Wagner 50%
Ruzicka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +5 · Wagner +2
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.80 / Wagner 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13107557
Ruzicka1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 184 of 325
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it75% 132 of 177
Wagner1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog53% won 32 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRuzicka1wins
AwayWagner0wins
Ruzicka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRuzickaWagnerR − WBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match40.034.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1388 vs 87 / 15548.5%56.1%673 / 1388 vs 87 / 155Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.80/Wagner 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 23:00J. Ruzicka—11126113M. Wagner—8101151
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 10 · 02:30J. Ruzicka1.231111911143S. Kasnik3.35513119122WSep 10 · 01:30O. Svacha1.91791281J. Ruzicka1.80111110113WSep 10 · 24:00J. Ruzicka1.50411416113R. Urbaniec2.50115111482WSep 9 · 23:00M. Wagner2.008101151J. Ruzicka1.7311126113WSep 9 · 17:30O. Kolisnyk1.9013970J. Ruzicka1.801511113WSep 9 · 16:30M. Jezek1.915260J. Ruzicka1.801111113LSep 9 · 15:30J. Ruzicka1.4582120R. Urbaniec2.601111143WSep 9 · 14:30O. Kolisnyk2.206111191J. Ruzicka1.6111913113LSep 8 · 13:30F. Pusch1.801111113J. Ruzicka1.804870LSep 8 · 12:00J. Ruzicka1.73117811122F. Pusch2.00611116143
M. Wagner10
WSep 10 · 02:00R. Urbaniec2.38691191M. Wagner1.5311116113WSep 10 · 24:30M. Wagner1.80711511113O. Svacha1.9111811992LSep 9 · 23:00M. Wagner2.008101151J. Ruzicka1.7311126113WSep 9 · 22:00S. Kasnik1.65111182102M. Wagner2.10321111123LSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121LSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:00J. Louda2.101081581M. Wagner1.67121113113WSep 6 · 10:30M. Wagner1.7310101112123P. Saleny1.881212710102LSep 6 · 09:00M. Wagner1.401381591P. Saleny2.75111117113LSep 6 · 08:00V. Vejvoda2.251111133M. Wagner1.5773110
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