TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13110036
Played Sep 12Finished
Tomas Dousa
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121179111181113
Tomas Janata
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 103 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Janata at 61.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 8–19 Tomas Janata Tomas Dousa has won 8 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Janata beat Dousa 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Janata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-19 in 27
Janata
Correct
gap of 11 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1558 vs Janata 1557
Dousa
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 60% vs Janata 100%
Janata
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 50% vs Janata 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa +1 · Janata +5
Janata
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Janata) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janata form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 2.38 / Janata 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Janata)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13110036
Dousa2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 53 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Janata1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 110 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it74% 77 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa1wins
AwayJanata9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJanata leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa0%0 of 3
AwayJanata85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa3Janata7n = 10Janata took 7 of 10
S2Dousa3Janata7n = 10Janata took 7 of 10
S3Dousa4Janata6n = 10Janata took 6 of 10
S4Dousa2Janata6n = 8Janata took 6 of 8
S5Dousa1Janata3n = 4Janata took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaJanataD − JBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.841.0−6.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime350 / 706 vs 433 / 82549.6%52.5%350 / 706 vs 433 / 825Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanataDousa 2.38/Janata 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Janata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 20:00T. Dousa—119115122T. Janata—811611143
LJun 23 · 19:30T. Dousa—711481T. Janata—11311113
LJun 11 · 21:00T. Dousa—891171T. Janata—11114113
WJun 11 · 20:00T. Dousa—9111110113T. Janata—11691292
LJun 1 · 20:00T. Dousa—11681172T. Janata—911119113
LJun 1 · 16:00T. Dousa—3760T. Janata—1111113
LApr 10 · 17:29T. Dousa—49111172T. Janata—111185113
LApr 10 · 15:30T. Dousa—711351T. Janata—11611113
LApr 8 · 15:30T. Dousa—117491T. Janata—41111113
LMar 15 · 02:00T. Dousa—71080T. Janata—1112113
T. Dousa10
LSep 12 · 03:30T. Janata1.5261111113T. Dousa2.35119991WSep 12 · 24:30Y. Holovatiuk2.63121155122T. Dousa1.441041111143LSep 11 · 23:30J. Dedek1.83911811163T. Dousa1.83117117142WSep 11 · 22:30T. Dousa1.831112113J. Plachy1.8371090WSep 11 · 20:58T. Dousa2.1091112113J. Plachy1.671191081LSep 11 · 20:00T. Janata1.50811611143T. Dousa2.50119115122LSep 11 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.00971111113T. Dousa1.7311116992WSep 11 · 18:30T. Dousa1.8381111113J. Plachy1.83118981LSep 10 · 16:59T. Dousa3.508990M. Sedlak1.281111113LSep 10 · 16:30M. Sedlak1.4012411143T. Dousa2.7510116121
T. Janata10
WSep 12 · 03:30T. Janata1.5261111113T. Dousa2.35119991WSep 12 · 02:30T. Janata1.40711611113J. Dedek2.7511711662WSep 12 · 24:00T. Janata1.501112113J. Plachy2.5081090WSep 11 · 23:00Y. Holovatiuk3.501081121T. Janata1.2812119113WSep 11 · 21:28J. Prokupek2.0081131152T. Janata1.73119116113WSep 11 · 20:00T. Janata1.50811611143T. Dousa2.50119115122WSep 11 · 19:30J. Plachy2.5010121031T. Janata1.50121012113LSep 11 · 18:00T. Janata1.575740J. Prokupek2.251111113LSep 7 · 21:00T. Janata1.536111161L. Krticka2.3811713113LSep 7 · 20:00T. Janata1.40591351M. Vedmoch2.75111111113
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