TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13101386
Played Sep 9Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.27
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14161171191311––
Mariusz Zwolinski
Away
3.35
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:56 and never touched — 65.4% is still 65.4%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
65.4%
65.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
92 points played in total.
Set by set
14161171191311––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 1–0 Mariusz Zwolinski Mariusz Zwolinski has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Lilien beat Zwolinski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (73%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1465 vs Zwolinski 1228
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 80% vs Zwolinski 40%
Lilien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 80% vs Zwolinski 30%
Lilien
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +3 · Zwolinski -2
Lilien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zwolinski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (30%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.27 / Zwolinski 3.35
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Lilien)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13101386
Lilien1.27
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 259 of 437
Up 2–0, closes it96% 133 of 138
Up 1–0, closes it78% 196 of 253
Zwolinski3.35
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 42 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLilien1wins
AwayZwolinski0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderLilien leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLilienZwolinskiL − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.041.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienZwolinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime834 / 1542 vs 124 / 34454.1%36.1%834 / 1542 vs 124 / 344Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.27/Zwolinski 3.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 06:55A. Lilien—116112113M. Zwolinski—81161152
A. Lilien10
WSep 9 · 09:00A. Lilien1.44111110113A. Szoltysek2.50881281WSep 9 · 07:40B. Wisniewski3.156790A. Lilien1.301111113WSep 9 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.3581161152A. Lilien1.27116112113LSep 9 · 06:05A. Lilien1.501111891K. Sulkowski2.4013111113WSep 9 · 04:30A. Lilien1.441111113A. Szoltysek2.509890WSep 9 · 03:50M. Lukaszewski3.30461131A. Lilien1.2711119113WSep 8 · 14:20A. Lilien1.5711119113A. Myszewski2.20851191WSep 8 · 12:40J. Glanowski1.861175111A. Lilien1.8371111133WSep 8 · 11:50S. Brud1.8098111142A. Lilien1.90111197113LSep 8 · 11:00A. Lilien1.8010911111B. Sulkowski1.9012116133
M. Zwolinski10
LSep 9 · 08:35M. Zwolinski2.50611671K. Sulkowski1.4711711113LSep 9 · 06:55M. Zwolinski3.3581161152A. Lilien1.27116112113WSep 9 · 05:40M. Zwolinski1.9091116113M. Lukaszewski1.801191451WSep 9 · 04:10M. Zwolinski1.8011119113B. Wisniewski1.80761181LSep 9 · 03:00M. Zwolinski2.3571112582A. Szoltysek1.501181011113WSep 7 · 13:55A. Szoltysek1.65126111182M. Zwolinski2.06141178113LSep 7 · 13:05A. Sobel1.1414112113M. Zwolinski4.651271181LSep 7 · 12:15M. Zwolinski3.401011731S. Brud1.2612911113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Zwolinski1.901854101J. Nosiadek1.75161111123LSep 7 · 09:50M. Minda1.2571111113M. Zwolinski3.40113531
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