TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13079715
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukasz Bernacki
Home
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111315511––––
Damian Fira
Away
1.95
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 61.4% is still 61.4%
Graded at full timeLukasz Bernacki to win
61.4%
61.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
64 points played in total.
Set by set
9111315511––––
H2H Lukasz Bernacki 8–4 Damian Fira Damian Fira has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Bernacki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Bernacki
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bernacki 1410 vs Fira 1268
Bernacki
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bernacki 80% vs Fira 60%
Bernacki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bernacki 40% vs Fira 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bernacki -1 · Fira +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bernacki) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bernacki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBernacki 1.75 / Fira 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bernacki)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13079715
Bernacki1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Fira1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 94 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBernacki7wins
AwayFira3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBernacki leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBernacki71.4%5 of 7
AwayFira33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bernacki7Fira3n = 10Bernacki took 7 of 10
S2Bernacki5Fira5n = 10split evenly
S3Bernacki4Fira6n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S4Bernacki4Fira4n = 8split evenly
S5Bernacki4Fira1n = 5Bernacki took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBernackiFiraB − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.4+4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBernackiFiraBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 514 vs 203 / 46451.8%43.8%266 / 514 vs 203 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BernackiBernacki 1.75/Fira 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bernacki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fira won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 22:40L. Bernacki—91350D. Fira—1115113
WJul 26 · 20:45L. Bernacki—71111113D. Fira—117371
WJul 26 · 02:20L. Bernacki—1111113D. Fira—7790
WApr 5 · 21:55L. Bernacki—111177113D. Fira—55111152
WApr 5 · 03:55L. Bernacki—117611113D. Fira—31111782
WApr 4 · 21:55L. Bernacki—11118113D. Fira—861151
LMar 22 · 03:45L. Bernacki—12911482D. Fira—1011511113
WMar 22 · 24:05L. Bernacki—118119113D. Fira—61181142
WMar 1 · 16:05L. Bernacki—1211611113D. Fira—14811462
LMar 1 · 10:05L. Bernacki—1141091D. Fira—41112113
L. Bernacki10
LSep 6 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.8571270R. Adach1.801114113LSep 6 · 03:30L. Bernacki1.704111061R. Wiza2.0011912113WSep 6 · 02:20L. Bernacki1.62911815113A. Szurgot2.17118111372LSep 6 · 24:45L. Bernacki2.059640R. Szymik1.701111113WSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki2.40111011173P. Polok1.503124151LSep 5 · 22:20R. Szymik1.805151014113L. Bernacki1.851113121292WSep 5 · 21:30R. Wiza2.708680L. Bernacki1.391111113WSep 5 · 20:45L. Bernacki1.5181112113R. Adach2.331191081LSep 5 · 19:10L. Bernacki2.196860P. Polok1.581111113WSep 5 · 18:20A. Szurgot3.05313471L. Bernacki1.31111111113
D. Fira10
LSep 5 · 04:40K. Juszczyk1.23111211133D. Fira3.6013109111WSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113LSep 5 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4611311113D. Fira2.54911631LSep 5 · 01:10R. Wiza2.001191210113D. Fira1.71711101292LSep 4 · 23:30L. Bernacki1.5471111113D. Fira2.27117481WSep 4 · 21:55J. Michalski2.0011890D. Fira1.711311113WSep 4 · 19:55R. Szymik1.4796100D. Fira2.451111123LSep 4 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.06101111113D. Fira6.75125251WSep 4 · 17:30R. Wiza2.00711111062D. Fira1.73117912113LAug 23 · 04:40J. Nowak2.2512125133D. Fira1.55101011111
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