TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13079711
Played Sep 4Finished
Lukasz Bernacki
Home
1.54
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711117114118––
Damian Fira
Away
2.27
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeLukasz Bernacki to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
711117114118––
H2H Lukasz Bernacki 8–4 Damian Fira Damian Fira has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:30What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (60%)
Bernacki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Bernacki
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bernacki 1390 vs Fira 1288
Bernacki
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bernacki 60% vs Fira 80%
Fira
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bernacki 40% vs Fira 60%
Fira
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bernacki -2 · Fira +3
Fira
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Bernacki) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fira form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBernacki 1.54 / Fira 2.27
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Bernacki)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13079711
Bernacki1.54
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 62 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it95% 41 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Fira2.27
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 94 of 225
Down 0–1, comes back23% 30 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBernacki7wins
AwayFira3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBernacki leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBernacki71.4%5 of 7
AwayFira33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bernacki7Fira3n = 10Bernacki took 7 of 10
S2Bernacki5Fira5n = 10split evenly
S3Bernacki4Fira6n = 10Fira took 6 of 10
S4Bernacki4Fira4n = 8split evenly
S5Bernacki4Fira1n = 5Bernacki took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBernackiFiraB − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.4+4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBernackiFiraBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 514 vs 203 / 46451.8%43.8%266 / 514 vs 203 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BernackiBernacki 1.54/Fira 2.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Bernacki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bernacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 22:40L. Bernacki—91350D. Fira—1115113
WJul 26 · 20:45L. Bernacki—71111113D. Fira—117371
WJul 26 · 02:20L. Bernacki—1111113D. Fira—7790
WApr 5 · 21:55L. Bernacki—111177113D. Fira—55111152
WApr 5 · 03:55L. Bernacki—117611113D. Fira—31111782
WApr 4 · 21:55L. Bernacki—11118113D. Fira—861151
LMar 22 · 03:45L. Bernacki—12911482D. Fira—1011511113
WMar 22 · 24:05L. Bernacki—118119113D. Fira—61181142
WMar 1 · 16:05L. Bernacki—1211611113D. Fira—14811462
LMar 1 · 10:05L. Bernacki—1141091D. Fira—41112113
L. Bernacki10
LSep 6 · 05:05L. Bernacki1.8571270R. Adach1.801114113LSep 6 · 03:30L. Bernacki1.704111061R. Wiza2.0011912113WSep 6 · 02:20L. Bernacki1.62911815113A. Szurgot2.17118111372LSep 6 · 24:45L. Bernacki2.059640R. Szymik1.701111113WSep 5 · 23:30L. Bernacki2.40111011173P. Polok1.503124151LSep 5 · 22:20R. Szymik1.805151014113L. Bernacki1.851113121292WSep 5 · 21:30R. Wiza2.708680L. Bernacki1.391111113WSep 5 · 20:45L. Bernacki1.5181112113R. Adach2.331191081LSep 5 · 19:10L. Bernacki2.196860P. Polok1.581111113WSep 5 · 18:20A. Szurgot3.05313471L. Bernacki1.31111111113
D. Fira10
LSep 5 · 04:40K. Juszczyk1.23111211133D. Fira3.6013109111WSep 5 · 03:55J. Michalski2.2011960D. Fira1.571311113LSep 5 · 01:55R. Szymik1.4611311113D. Fira2.54911631LSep 5 · 01:10R. Wiza2.001191210113D. Fira1.71711101292WSep 4 · 22:40L. Bernacki1.7591350D. Fira1.951115113WSep 4 · 21:55J. Michalski2.0011890D. Fira1.711311113WSep 4 · 19:55R. Szymik1.4796100D. Fira2.451111123LSep 4 · 19:10P. Gasiorski1.06101111113D. Fira6.75125251WSep 4 · 17:30R. Wiza2.00711111062D. Fira1.73117912113LAug 23 · 04:40J. Nowak2.2512125133D. Fira1.55101011111
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