TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065558
Played Sep 3Finished
Erik Mares
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111151412611611
Martin Huk
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:08 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Huk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingErik Mares above · Martin Huk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Martin Huk at 54.9%
93 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 17–21 Martin Huk Erik Mares has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:08What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mares
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Huk
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1890 vs Huk 1779
Mares
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 40% vs Huk 60%
Huk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Huk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +2 · Huk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mares) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Huk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.44 / Huk 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Mares)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065558
Mares1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 141 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it86% 89 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it72% 114 of 159
Huk2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 139 of 329
Down 0–1, comes back25% 43 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayHuk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares60%3 of 5
AwayHuk60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Huk5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares6Huk4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares5Huk5n = 10split evenly
S4Mares4Huk5n = 9Huk took 5 of 9
S5Mares3Huk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresHukM − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.343.4+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresHukBasisWin rate · lifetime588 / 1170 vs 822 / 167250.3%49.2%588 / 1170 vs 822 / 1672Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresMares 1.44/Huk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Huk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 03:28E. Mares—511891M. Huk—11811113
LSep 1 · 23:00E. Mares—112111382M. Huk—611515113
LJan 23 · 07:00E. Mares—11111191M. Huk—71313113
WJan 17 · 11:30E. Mares—111310113M. Huk—8111261
WJan 17 · 09:00E. Mares—1112113M. Huk—91040
LJan 16 · 07:30E. Mares—81181192M. Huk—119112113
WJan 14 · 23:30E. Mares—129148133M. Huk—10111211112
WJan 14 · 09:00E. Mares—711813113M. Huk—117111162
WJan 13 · 14:30E. Mares—1011119123M. Huk—129711102
LJan 13 · 13:00E. Mares—109111172M. Huk—121149113
E. Mares10
LSep 6 · 09:00E. Mares1.579111111102O. Kolisnyk2.25111369123WSep 6 · 08:00E. Mares1.83114116113J. Vales1.8351151152WSep 6 · 07:30O. Kolisnyk2.5089111172E. Mares1.50111169113LSep 6 · 06:00E. Mares1.83911117102T. Postelt1.83113911123LSep 5 · 13:00E. Mares1.731111771J. Zajicek2.0061311113LSep 5 · 12:00E. Mares1.83119113132J. Vales1.83611511153WSep 5 · 11:30J. Zajicek1.73911681E. Mares2.0011711113LSep 5 · 10:00E. Mares2.259620J. Medek1.571111113LSep 4 · 21:30E. Mares2.00311111052J. Medek1.73119912113WSep 4 · 20:00E. Mares1.8011813113J. Vales1.912111171
M. Huk10
WSep 3 · 13:29M. Zahradka1.6110131081M. Huk2.20121112113WSep 3 · 12:30M. Huk1.8312119113J. Ruzicka1.831071191LSep 3 · 11:00M. Huk1.91711561M. Zahradka1.8011911113LSep 3 · 09:28M. Zahradka1.801111113M. Huk1.915750LSep 3 · 08:00M. Zahradka1.73511114123M. Huk2.00118711102WSep 3 · 07:00M. Klimenta1.80118681M. Huk1.9141111113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Huk1.801171011113J. Ruzicka1.9161112772WSep 2 · 21:28J. Kycelt1.50116871M. Huk2.5041111113WSep 2 · 20:30M. Huk1.83118116113J. Ruzicka1.8331181152WSep 2 · 19:00M. Huk2.1061112113T. Postelt1.671171091
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