TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047121
Played Aug 30Finished
Wiekiera Arkadiusz
Home
1.79
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111412116116––
Kamil Kos
Away
1.84
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWiekiera Arkadiusz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
8111412116116––
H2H Wiekiera Arkadiusz 22–17 Kamil Kos Kamil Kos has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:57What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.79 (51%)
Arkadiusz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Arkadiusz
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Arkadiusz 1407 vs Kos 1426
Kos
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Arkadiusz 60% vs Kos 40%
Arkadiusz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Arkadiusz 50% vs Kos 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Arkadiusz +1 · Kos -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Arkadiusz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsArkadiusz 1.79 / Kos 1.84
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Arkadiusz)+3.3pp
TT Cup · #13047121
Arkadiusz1.79
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 135 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it71% 96 of 135
Kos1.84
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 30 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeArkadiusz7wins
AwayKos3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderArkadiusz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeArkadiusz80%4 of 5
AwayKos40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Arkadiusz5Kos5n = 10split evenly
S2Arkadiusz4Kos6n = 10Kos took 6 of 10
S3Arkadiusz6Kos4n = 10Arkadiusz took 6 of 10
S4Arkadiusz5Kos3n = 8Arkadiusz took 5 of 8
S5Arkadiusz4Kos1n = 5Arkadiusz took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricArkadiuszKosA − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.342.4+1.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricArkadiuszKosBasisWin rate · lifetime551 / 983 vs 141 / 28756.1%49.1%551 / 983 vs 141 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ArkadiuszArkadiusz 1.79/Kos 1.84
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Arkadiusz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Arkadiusz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz—11814143K. Kos—51112121
WAug 24 · 20:00W. Arkadiusz—715511113K. Kos—111311892
LAug 22 · 09:35W. Arkadiusz—1110101192K. Kos—712128113
LAug 17 · 19:30W. Arkadiusz—811961K. Kos—11911113
WAug 10 · 18:30W. Arkadiusz—11111112113K. Kos—51371462
WAug 9 · 21:35W. Arkadiusz—12711113K. Kos—1011861
WAug 7 · 10:20W. Arkadiusz—9111311113K. Kos—118111382
WAug 7 · 05:30W. Arkadiusz—1111163K. Kos—95140
WAug 3 · 16:00W. Arkadiusz—1281111113K. Kos—14119572
LAug 2 · 06:35W. Arkadiusz—41140K. Kos—1113113
W. Arkadiusz10
WSep 7 · 15:30L. Buklat1.8369100W. Arkadiusz1.831111123LSep 7 · 14:00K. Patryk1.601091711113W. Arkadiusz2.10121115892LSep 2 · 22:40P. Odelski1.591111113W. Arkadiusz2.138890LSep 2 · 20:30P. Odelski1.6414711113W. Arkadiusz2.031211781WSep 2 · 19:30K. Patryk1.5781170W. Arkadiusz2.171113113WSep 2 · 18:00J. Komorowicz2.5512811982W. Arkadiusz1.421011911113WSep 2 · 15:30L. Buklat1.886811111W. Arkadiusz1.8211119133LSep 2 · 14:00P. Kamil1.9016911113W. Arkadiusz1.801411471LSep 1 · 22:00W. Arkadiusz1.8511119582P. Kamil1.85791111113WSep 1 · 20:30P. Kamil1.7358100W. Arkadiusz1.981111123
K. Kos10
WSep 7 · 15:00K. Patryk1.50614551K. Kos2.30111211113WSep 7 · 14:30W. Dariusz1.809712101K. Kos1.91111110123LSep 1 · 21:30F. Baranski1.59114711123K. Kos2.24711116102LSep 1 · 20:00F. Baranski2.85138119113K. Kos1.33111151182WSep 1 · 19:00K. Kos1.611111123J. Komorowicz2.0985100LSep 1 · 18:00K. Kos1.6471111882W. Arkadiusz2.04118511113LSep 1 · 16:30K. Kos1.71641471P. Kamil2.00111112113WSep 1 · 14:30K. Kos2.1712119123K. Patryk1.5710811101WAug 30 · 13:35P. Kamil—3570K. Kos—1111113LAug 30 · 11:35K. Kos1.80971151L. Buklat1.9011118113
Upcoming Matches
W. Arkadiusz
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K. Kos
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