TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13021341
Played Aug 27Finished
Denis Hofman
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3115111012––––
Martin Skakal
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenis Hofman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDenis Hofman above · Martin Skakal below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 52 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Denis Hofman at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Denis Hofman 2–4 Martin Skakal Denis Hofman has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:50What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hofman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Skakal
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hofman 1635 vs Skakal 1706
Skakal
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hofman 40% vs Skakal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hofman 30% vs Skakal 60%
Skakal
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hofman -1 · Skakal -3
Skakal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hofman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skakal form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHofman 1.80 / Skakal 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hofman)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13021341
Hofman1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 77 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it66% 46 of 70
Skakal1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 23 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back32% 10 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeHofman2wins
AwaySkakal4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderSkakal leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHofmann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkakal100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hofman2Skakal4n = 6Skakal took 4 of 6
S2Hofman3Skakal3n = 6split evenly
S3Hofman3Skakal3n = 6split evenly
S4Hofman2Skakal2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricHofmanSkakalH − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match33.838.7−4.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHofmanSkakalBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 950 vs 66 / 12948.3%51.2%459 / 950 vs 66 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HofmanHofman 1.80/Skakal 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hofman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skakal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 27 · 22:30D. Hofman—35100M. Skakal—1111123
WAug 23 · 02:30D. Hofman—111113133M. Skakal—4915111
LAug 18 · 24:30D. Hofman—741251M. Skakal—111110113
LAug 18 · 24:30D. Hofman—741251M. Skakal—111110113
WAug 17 · 20:58D. Hofman—1112113M. Skakal—31090
LAug 17 · 18:00D. Hofman—411131182M. Skakal—116158113
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881
M. Skakal10
LAug 31 · 03:30V. Vejvoda1.6511116113M. Skakal2.10691161LAug 31 · 02:30M. Skakal2.1071260V. Vejvoda1.671114113WAug 31 · 01:30M. Sobisek2.1011881182M. Skakal1.67811117113WAug 31 · 24:00M. Skakal1.731111113M. Chlebecek2.007450WAug 30 · 23:00M. Klement1.57111161082M. Skakal2.25581112113LAug 28 · 03:02M. Skakal1.73119811102R. Wagner2.00511114123LAug 28 · 02:00M. Skakal2.2051160J. Louda1.611113113LAug 28 · 01:00M. Skakal2.1011117832S. Kasnik1.67731111113WAug 28 · 24:00R. Wagner1.6791511832M. Skakal2.101113711113LAug 24 · 03:00M. Skakal4.3311731192V. Cermak1.19811116113
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