TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020123
Played Aug 27Finished
Jakub Simecek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411117711117119
Tomas Petrek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 60.3% is still 60.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Simecek to win
60.3%
60.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simecek above · Tomas Petrek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Simecek at 60.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simecek 4–1 Tomas Petrek Tomas Petrek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Simecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Simecek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simecek 1674 vs Petrek 1640
Simecek
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simecek 40% vs Petrek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simecek 50% vs Petrek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simecek +1 · Petrek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Simecek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Simecek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimecek 1.73 / Petrek 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Simecek)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020123
Simecek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 82 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it73% 56 of 77
Petrek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog57% won 26 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back44% 10 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back27% 3 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSimecek4wins
AwayPetrek1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSimecek leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayPetrekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simecek3Petrek2n = 5Simecek took 3 of 5
S2Simecek3Petrek2n = 5Simecek took 3 of 5
S3Simecek1Petrek4n = 5Petrek took 4 of 5
S4Simecek4Petrek1n = 5Simecek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSimecekPetrekS − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.439.4+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimecekPetrekBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 283 vs 117 / 22753%51.5%150 / 283 vs 117 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimecekSimecek 1.73/Petrek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Simecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Simecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 27 · 08:00J. Simecek—411711113T. Petrek—11711792
WAug 26 · 06:00J. Simecek—911711123T. Petrek—112117102
WAug 7 · 13:30J. Simecek—11118113T. Petrek—781191
WAug 7 · 12:00J. Simecek—11811113T. Petrek—811591
LAug 6 · 12:00J. Simecek—11910111T. Petrek—71112133
J. Simecek10
WSep 3 · 16:58D. Unzeitig1.91121181342J. Simecek1.801421111113LSep 3 · 16:30J. Simecek1.80111013101D. Unzeitig1.9191215123LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simecek2.3898110T. Kypr1.531111133LSep 3 · 14:00M. Bereiter1.7391115113J. Simecek2.001191391WAug 28 · 12:59L. Martinak1.251181110102J. Simecek3.75511912123LAug 28 · 12:00J. Hutnik1.501111113J. Simecek2.506950LAug 28 · 11:00L. Martinak1.831112113J. Simecek1.8331030LAug 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67111061262T. Petrek2.109121110113LAug 28 · 08:59D. Unzeitig2.2511116113J. Simecek1.57811131LAug 28 · 08:30J. Simecek1.44611981D. Unzeitig2.6311811113
T. Petrek10
LAug 28 · 13:30J. Hutnik1.5061111113T. Petrek2.50116331WAug 28 · 12:30L. Martinak1.737138111T. Petrek2.00111111133LAug 28 · 11:30T. Petrek2.386690J. Hutnik1.531111113WAug 28 · 10:30J. Simecek1.67111061262T. Petrek2.109121110113LAug 27 · 09:00T. Petrek1.911012491J. Hutnik1.80121011113LAug 27 · 07:00L. Martinak1.8311115113T. Petrek1.83381191WAug 27 · 06:30T. Petrek2.75111465113J. Hutnik1.40512111182WAug 26 · 08:58L. Martinak1.80101040T. Petrek1.911212113LAug 26 · 08:30T. Petrek2.0051450J. Hutnik1.731116113LAug 26 · 07:00T. Petrek1.91681111102L. Martinak1.80111169123
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