TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13011597
Played Aug 25Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111210711611––
Jiri Hanak
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Hanak to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Jiri Hanak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 73 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Hanak at 67.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 2–7 Jiri Hanak Pavel Chvatal has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Hanak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Hanak
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1622 vs Hanak 1618
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Hanak 20%
Chvatal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 40% vs Hanak 60%
Hanak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Hanak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Hanak) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanak form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 2.63 / Hanak 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Hanak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13011597
Chvatal2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog51% won 36 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Hanak1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite87% won 13 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeChvatal2wins
AwayHanak7wins
3 of 9 to a deciderHanak leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvataln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHanak100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal2Hanak7n = 9Hanak took 7 of 9
S2Chvatal4Hanak5n = 9Hanak took 5 of 9
S3Chvatal1Hanak8n = 9Hanak took 8 of 9
S4Chvatal4Hanak2n = 6Chvatal took 4 of 6
S5Chvatal1Hanak2n = 3Hanak took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricChvatalHanakC − HBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match30.738.3−7.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalHanakBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 247 vs 39 / 6654.3%59.1%134 / 247 vs 39 / 66Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HanakChvatal 2.63/Hanak 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Hanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hanak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 25 · 17:10P. Chvatal—11119113J. Hanak—411161
LAug 25 · 15:35P. Chvatal—512761J. Hanak—111011113
LApr 22 · 10:05P. Chvatal—2570J. Hanak—1111113
LMar 12 · 13:05P. Chvatal—4670J. Hanak—1111113
LMar 9 · 17:05P. Chvatal—71181182J. Hanak—117117113
LFeb 17 · 14:20P. Chvatal—55111162J. Hanak—111176113
LFeb 17 · 13:05P. Chvatal—411751J. Hanak—11811113
WJan 27 · 14:15P. Chvatal—114511113J. Hanak—91111972
LJan 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal—5880J. Hanak—1111113
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
J. Hanak10
LAug 26 · 13:05J. Hanak1.802940M. Holub1.911111113LAug 26 · 12:05J. Hanak1.50811881S. Vyskocil2.5011911113WAug 26 · 11:05J. Hanak1.5381111113M. Holub2.38119661LAug 26 · 10:05J. Hanak1.501181211112R. Fitl2.50511146133LAug 25 · 17:10J. Hanak1.44411161P. Chvatal2.6311119113LAug 25 · 16:05J. Muska1.731111113J. Hanak2.005580LAug 25 · 14:35J. Hanak1.807960S. Vyskocil1.911111113WApr 24 · 13:05J. Babinek—10101191J. Hanak—12122113LApr 24 · 12:35F. Karel—1412113J. Hanak—121050LApr 24 · 11:35J. Hanak1.7912711592J. Babinek1.881011911113
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