TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459894
Played Aug 19Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115811117116––
Martin Cvecek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Martin Cvecek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–0 Martin Cvecek Martin Cvecek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1331 vs Cvecek 856
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 475 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Cvecek 0%
Chmelicek
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 50% vs Cvecek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +4 · Cvecek -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cvecek form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.73 / Cvecek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12459894
Chmelicek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 52 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it64% 39 of 61
Cvecek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayCvecek0wins
Chmelicek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricChmelicekCvecekChmelicek − CvecekBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.029.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekCvecekBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 419 vs 0 / 746.3%0%194 / 419 vs 0 / 7Avg sets wonper match1.90.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.326.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.73/Cvecek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 19 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—11811113M. Cvecek—511761
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
M. Cvecek10
LAug 19 · 21:10R. Hruby1.83611116113M. Cvecek1.8311571182LAug 19 · 20:35M. Cvecek2.38114861R. Hruby1.5381111113LAug 19 · 18:35P. Klusacek1.401111113M. Cvecek2.755980LAug 17 · 21:13R. Hruby1.801111113M. Cvecek1.914870LAug 17 · 20:35M. Cvecek1.73113891R. Hruby2.0061111113LAug 17 · 19:05J. Kabelka1.4011911123M. Cvecek2.755115101LAug 17 · 18:35P. Klusacek1.571211113M. Cvecek2.2510850WJun 24 · 17:30K. Hons1.83111150M. Cvecek1.831313113WJun 24 · 16:00M. Cvecek1.671111113P. Svoboda2.106480WJun 24 · 15:30L. Pelikan1.83911911102M. Cvecek1.83114116123
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