TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12442990
Played Aug 17Finished
Tomas Kucera
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811114117711811
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:22 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Kucera to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Kucera above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Kucera at 55.4%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kucera 11–13 Jaromir Cernik Tomas Kucera has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:22What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kucera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Cernik
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucera 1121 vs Cernik 1160
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucera 60% vs Cernik 20%
Kucera
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucera 40% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucera +3 · Cernik -2
Kucera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucera 1.73 / Cernik 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernik)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12442990
Kucera1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite41% won 11 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Cernik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 44 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKucera6wins
AwayCernik4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKucera leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucera83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucera6Cernik4n = 10Kucera took 6 of 10
S2Kucera5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Kucera6Cernik4n = 10Kucera took 6 of 10
S4Kucera5Cernik4n = 9Kucera took 5 of 9
S5Kucera2Cernik3n = 5Cernik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuceraCernikK − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.6+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuceraCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 230 vs 369 / 79449.1%46.5%113 / 230 vs 369 / 794Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikKucera 1.73/Cernik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 06:30T. Kucera—81111782J. Cernik—114711113
LJul 2 · 22:30T. Kucera—4290J. Cernik—1111113
WMay 26 · 09:29T. Kucera—1181112113J. Cernik—51161492
LMay 26 · 08:00T. Kucera—11081452J. Cernik—9111112113
LJan 22 · 23:00T. Kucera—61111452J. Cernik—11871193
WNov 6 · 07:30T. Kucera—11117113J. Cernik—661171
WMay 22 · 13:30T. Kucera—11119113J. Cernik—981191
WMay 22 · 10:30T. Kucera—61111113J. Cernik—119551
WMay 7 · 07:00T. Kucera—165119113J. Cernik—141141152
WMay 2 · 01:00T. Kucera—11611113J. Cernik—511791
T. Kucera10
LAug 26 · 03:30T. Kucera1.60791171J. Grohsgott2.2011118113WAug 26 · 02:00T. Kucera2.6311311113J. Grohsgott1.44511491LAug 26 · 01:00T. Kucera2.101191051V. Stach1.6781112113WAug 26 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.67811921T. Kucera2.1011911113WAug 25 · 22:30J. Martinek1.7311060T. Kucera2.001112113LAug 17 · 08:58A. Hejduk1.911411113T. Kucera1.8012760LAug 17 · 08:00M. Bohac1.2851111113T. Kucera3.50119941LAug 17 · 07:00A. Hejduk2.109111011133T. Kucera1.67119129112WJul 30 · 09:30L. Forman1.30111111432T. Kucera3.10781311113WJul 30 · 08:00A. Tkachenko3.7510940T. Kucera1.251211113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
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