TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12362502
Played Aug 5Finished
Oleksandr Shyshman
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412118811811117
Oleh Karpenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Karpenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Shyshman above · Oleh Karpenko below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 101 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oleh Karpenko at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Shyshman 18–22 Oleh Karpenko Oleksandr Shyshman has won 18 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Karpenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-22 in 40
Karpenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shyshman 1531 vs Karpenko 1511
Shyshman
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shyshman 20% vs Karpenko 60%
Karpenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shyshman 40% vs Karpenko 70%
Karpenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shyshman -3 · Karpenko +1
Shyshman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shyshman) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shyshman form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShyshman 1.91 / Karpenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Shyshman)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #12362502
Shyshman1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 8 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back50% 5 of 10
Karpenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 94 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 68 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShyshman7wins
AwayKarpenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderShyshman leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShyshman75%3 of 4
AwayKarpenko33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shyshman4Karpenko6n = 10Karpenko took 6 of 10
S2Shyshman7Karpenko3n = 10Shyshman took 7 of 10
S3Shyshman5Karpenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Shyshman6Karpenko2n = 8Shyshman took 6 of 8
S5Shyshman3Karpenko2n = 5Shyshman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShyshmanKarpenkoS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.538.4+4.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShyshmanKarpenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 360 vs 330 / 65450.3%50.5%181 / 360 vs 330 / 654Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShyshmanShyshman 1.91/Karpenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Shyshman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shyshman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 07:05O. Shyshman—141188113O. Karpenko—128111172
WJul 14 · 10:00O. Shyshman—71111113O. Karpenko—118551
LJun 24 · 11:00O. Shyshman—8870O. Karpenko—1111113
WMay 20 · 10:00O. Shyshman—971114133O. Karpenko—1111612112
WMar 31 · 07:00O. Shyshman—81111113O. Karpenko—117761
WJan 21 · 10:05O. Shyshman—1121211113O. Karpenko—81114372
WJan 16 · 10:00O. Shyshman—61112113O. Karpenko—1151061
LJan 6 · 08:00O. Shyshman—11119792O. Karpenko—531111113
WDec 15 · 09:00O. Shyshman—1111113O. Karpenko—8850
LDec 9 · 08:05O. Shyshman—811101362O. Karpenko—1191211113
O. Shyshman10
LSep 7 · 07:05O. Shyshman1.507860O. Ovsiienko2.501111113WSep 7 · 06:05O. Lipeiko2.508460O. Shyshman1.501111113LAug 5 · 12:05O. Shyshman1.6111711992F. Voinarovskyi2.20411611113WAug 5 · 10:05O. Osadchyi2.0069100O. Shyshman1.731111123WAug 5 · 08:05S. Solomko3.251780O. Shyshman1.331111113LAug 5 · 06:05A. Martyniuk2.0011116113O. Shyshman1.73571151LJul 19 · 11:50O. Shyshman2.00911871O. Tymofeev1.7311811113LJul 19 · 10:20O. Shyshman1.801112891B. Zaika1.9171411113WJul 19 · 08:50O. Shyshman1.3311119113S. Solomko3.25171171LJul 19 · 07:20O. Shyshman1.5011970E. Populovskyi2.501311113
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113
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