TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12355725
Played Aug 4Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711811811––
Jaroslav Bresky
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Bresky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Jaroslav Bresky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Bresky at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 1–2 Jaroslav Bresky Kyryl Darin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:17What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bresky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1513 vs Bresky 1506
Darin
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 20% vs Bresky 60%
Bresky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 40% vs Bresky 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +1 · Bresky +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Bresky) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 2.50 / Bresky 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Bresky)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12355725
Darin2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 209 of 470
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 260
Down 0–2, comes back11% 16 of 153
Bresky1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 15 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDarin1wins
AwayBresky2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBresky leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin1Bresky2n = 3Bresky took 2 of 3
S2Darin1Bresky2n = 3Bresky took 2 of 3
S3Darin1Bresky2n = 3Bresky took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricDarinBreskyD − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match33.339.7−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinBreskyBasisWin rate · lifetime753 / 1529 vs 94 / 18149.3%51.9%753 / 1529 vs 94 / 181Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BreskyDarin 2.50/Bresky 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Bresky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bresky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 11 · 10:30K. Darin—117118123J. Bresky—811211102
LJun 11 · 07:30K. Darin—411461J. Bresky—11711113
LApr 15 · 14:00K. Darin—67130J. Bresky—1111153
K. Darin10
WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472LSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123
J. Bresky10
LAug 4 · 13:30J. Plachy1.80111111113J. Bresky1.90137471WAug 4 · 12:30J. Bresky1.331112113Y. Holovatiuk3.2581060LAug 4 · 11:00J. Bresky1.919970J. Plachy1.801111113WAug 4 · 08:58J. Bresky1.36111112113Y. Holovatiuk3.00591491WAug 4 · 08:30J. Bresky1.3611118113Y. Holovatiuk3.00391131LAug 4 · 07:00J. Bresky1.911110881J. Plachy1.8081211113LAug 4 · 06:00R. Pavelka1.8311119113J. Bresky1.83571171WJul 9 · 13:30J. Stolfa1.801670J. Bresky1.911111113WJul 9 · 12:00J. Bresky2.25511114153J. Stolfa1.57119911132WJul 9 · 11:30M. Kolar1.83111181082J. Bresky1.83981112113
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