TT Lossbeater/WTT Star Contender Brazil
WTT Star Contender BrazilMatch #12306280
Played Jul 26Finished
Hugo Calderano
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
4 – 3
Set by set
1193111161311411
Alexis Lebrun
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeHugo Calderano to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHugo Calderano above · Alexis Lebrun below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Set 6 · 8-11
Set 7 · 11-9
Point 129 set 7, 11-9 — our read held Hugo Calderano at 54.0%
129 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:08What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Calderano
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Calderano 2162 vs Lebrun 2177
Lebrun
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Calderano 100% vs Lebrun 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Calderano 80% vs Lebrun 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Calderano +5 · Lebrun +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Calderano) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebrun form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCalderano 1.36 / Lebrun 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Calderano)+0.0pp
WTT Star Contender Brazil · #12306280
Calderano1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
Lebrun3.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricCalderanoLebrunBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 5 vs 5 / 5100%100%5 / 5 vs 5 / 5Avg sets wonper match3.03.0per matchAvg pointsper match48.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CalderanoCalderano 1.36/Lebrun 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Calderano · sealed before the serve
What happened
4–3
Calderano won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
H. Calderano10
LAug 15 · 19:15F. Lebrun1.441611811114H. Calderano2.6314711451WAug 14 · 17:20A. Lind4.00791181H. Calderano1.2211115113WAug 14 · 10:35M. Yoshimura3.702111171H. Calderano1.2411913113WAug 13 · 11:10M. Yoshimura4.002111171H. Calderano1.2211913113WAug 11 · 12:20W. Bergenblock10.501760H. Calderano1.021111113WJul 26 · 18:00H. Calderano1.2511151221113Y. Uda3.75517141982WJul 26 · 14:40H. Calderano1.2411151221113Y. Uda3.45517141982WJul 25 · 21:45H. Calderano1.141111113J. Oh5.009640WJul 25 · 15:10H. Calderano1.1011114113T. Pucar6.50951161WJul 24 · 21:10H. Calderano1.171111113A. Bertelsmeier4.507850
A. Lebrun10
LAug 15 · 12:15A. Lebrun3.509711130T. Harimoto1.28111113154WAug 14 · 12:50S. Lin1.4011711782A. Lebrun2.75611911113WAug 13 · 10:35P. Xiang3.40491181A. Lebrun1.3011117113WAug 11 · 18:20I. Quek6.0010820A. Lebrun1.11121183LAug 8 · 11:00T. Harimoto1.50191111114A. Lebrun2.50179490WAug 7 · 11:05D. Jorgic3.75110381A. Lebrun1.2591111113WAug 4 · 02:00M. Shah7.005580A. Lebrun1.081111113WJul 26 · 18:00J. An3.0012550A. Lebrun1.361411113WJul 26 · 16:00J. An2.9512550A. Lebrun1.331411113WJul 25 · 21:10P. Franziska1.915117101A. Lebrun1.8011811123
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