TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12436290
Played Aug 15Finished
Alexis Lebrun
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 4
Set by set
91171111131315––
Tomokazu Harimoto
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomokazu Harimoto to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexis Lebrun above · Tomokazu Harimoto below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 13-15
Point 90 set 4, 13-15 — our read held Tomokazu Harimoto at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:05What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Harimoto
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Lebrun 80% vs Harimoto 100%
Harimoto
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebrun 80% vs Harimoto 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebrun +3 · Harimoto +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Harimoto) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Harimoto form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebrun 3.50 / Harimoto 1.28
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Harimoto)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12436290
Lebrun3.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Harimoto1.28
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebrunHarimotoBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 10 vs 9 / 1080%90%8 / 10 vs 9 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.73.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HarimotoLebrun 3.50/Harimoto 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Harimoto · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–4
Harimoto won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
A. Lebrun10
WAug 14 · 12:50S. Lin1.4011711782A. Lebrun2.75611911113WAug 13 · 10:35P. Xiang3.40491181A. Lebrun1.3011117113WAug 11 · 18:20I. Quek6.0010820A. Lebrun1.11121183LAug 8 · 11:00T. Harimoto1.50191111114A. Lebrun2.50179490WAug 7 · 11:05D. Jorgic3.75110381A. Lebrun1.2591111113WAug 4 · 02:00M. Shah7.005580A. Lebrun1.081111113LJul 26 · 21:00H. Calderano1.36113111344A. Lebrun3.00911611113WJul 26 · 18:00J. An3.0012550A. Lebrun1.361411113WJul 26 · 16:00J. An2.9512550A. Lebrun1.331411113WJul 25 · 21:10P. Franziska1.915117101A. Lebrun1.8011811123
T. Harimoto10
LAug 16 · 17:00F. Lebrun1.831111511104T. Harimoto1.835811991WAug 16 · 11:30T. Harimoto1.2811711694S. Matsushima3.50611411113WAug 14 · 18:05S. Togami2.631211101192T. Harimoto1.44147129103WAug 13 · 16:35Y. Uda4.005950T. Harimoto1.221111113WAug 12 · 16:35M. Thakkar8.509860T. Harimoto1.051111113WAug 9 · 10:15T. Harimoto1.267111111114J. Oh3.351174871WAug 9 · 04:45S. Matsushima2.5049111752T. Harimoto1.501111815114WAug 8 · 11:00T. Harimoto1.50191111114A. Lebrun2.50179490WAug 7 · 08:30T. Harimoto1.251111113P. Xiang3.757880WAug 5 · 10:05T. Harimoto1.021111113N. Lum15.003650
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