TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12440946
Played Aug 16Finished
Tomokazu Harimoto
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
4 – 3
Set by set
116711114611911118116
Sora Matsushima
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomokazu Harimoto to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomokazu Harimoto above · Sora Matsushima below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Set 6 · 11-8
Set 7 · 11-6
Point 123 set 7, 11-6 — our read held Tomokazu Harimoto at 54.0%
123 points played in total.
H2H Tomokazu Harimoto 0–1 Sora Matsushima Tomokazu Harimoto has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:25What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Harimoto
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Harimoto 2047 vs Matsushima 2139
Matsushima
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Harimoto 100% vs Matsushima 80%
Harimoto
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Harimoto 100% vs Matsushima 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Harimoto +5 · Matsushima +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Harimoto) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matsushima form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHarimoto 1.28 / Matsushima 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Harimoto)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12440946
Harimoto1.28
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Matsushima3.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHarimoto0wins
AwayMatsushima1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMatsushima leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHarimotoMatsushimaH − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.043.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHarimotoMatsushimaBasisWin rate · lifetime4 / 5 vs 5 / 580%100%4 / 5 vs 5 / 5Avg sets wonper match3.03.0per matchAvg pointsper match42.444.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HarimotoHarimoto 1.28/Matsushima 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Harimoto · sealed before the serve
What happened
4–3
Harimoto won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 16 · 11:30T. Harimoto—11711692S. Matsushima—611411113
T. Harimoto10
LAug 16 · 17:00F. Lebrun1.831111511104T. Harimoto1.835811991WAug 15 · 12:15A. Lebrun3.509711130T. Harimoto1.28111113154WAug 14 · 18:05S. Togami2.631211101192T. Harimoto1.44147129103WAug 13 · 16:35Y. Uda4.005950T. Harimoto1.221111113WAug 12 · 16:35M. Thakkar8.509860T. Harimoto1.051111113WAug 9 · 10:15T. Harimoto1.267111111114J. Oh3.351174871WAug 9 · 04:45S. Matsushima2.5049111752T. Harimoto1.501111815114WAug 8 · 11:00T. Harimoto1.50191111114A. Lebrun2.50179490WAug 7 · 08:30T. Harimoto1.251111113P. Xiang3.757880WAug 5 · 10:05T. Harimoto1.021111113N. Lum15.003650
S. Matsushima10
WAug 15 · 17:45E. Ranefur4.33911911102S. Matsushima1.20118118123WAug 14 · 16:35Q. Zhou3.0011971192S. Matsushima1.36511116113WAug 13 · 18:20Y. Feng7.50111141162S. Matsushima1.07135112113WAug 12 · 16:35S. Gnanasekaran9.00611651S. Matsushima1.0411811113LAug 9 · 04:45S. Matsushima2.5049111752T. Harimoto1.501111815114WAug 8 · 04:15S. Matsushima1.281011111104W. Jang3.50129118123WAug 6 · 05:00S. Matsushima1.131112113A. Lind5.5091070WAug 4 · 02:00S. Matsushima1.1714119113Q. Zhou4.501291191WJul 6 · 03:00S. Matsushima1.281111111154V. Sidorenko3.5051374112WJul 5 · 20:30S. Matsushima1.9612111012124F. Lebrun1.701071210101
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