TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12435245
Played Aug 15Finished
Elias Ranefur
Home
4.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111189111181012
Sora Matsushima
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSora Matsushima to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingElias Ranefur above · Sora Matsushima below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 10-12
Set 6 · 11-9
Set 7 · 9-11
Point 140 set 7, 9-11 — our read held Sora Matsushima at 54.0%
140 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:43What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Matsushima
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Form (L5)
Ranefur 80% vs Matsushima 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ranefur 70% vs Matsushima 90%
Matsushima
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ranefur +4 · Matsushima +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Matsushima) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ranefur form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRanefur 4.33 / Matsushima 1.20
Signal prob.22% / 78%
Edge (Matsushima)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12435245
Ranefur4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Matsushima1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricRanefurMatsushimaBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 10 vs 9 / 1070%90%7 / 10 vs 9 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.63.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatsushimaRanefur 4.33/Matsushima 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.3%
Matsushima · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matsushima won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
E. Ranefur10
LAug 22 · 11:20E. Ranefur1.2011791472H. Kwon4.335111112113WAug 21 · 08:00E. Ranefur1.1081111113A. Kurmangaliyev6.50112871WAug 14 · 11:20T. Pucar1.8371171182E. Ranefur1.83115119113WAug 14 · 10:35E. Ranefur3.25115115113R. Wen1.2671161172WAug 13 · 17:10E. Ranefur3.50115115113R. Wen1.2871161172WAug 10 · 18:20E. Ranefur2.001114113I. Chirita1.7331280LJun 29 · 01:35A. Rassenfosse1.6611711113E. Ranefur2.10811391WJun 28 · 24:30J. Lim1.53641171E. Ranefur2.3811118113WJun 27 · 01:05N. Burgos3.554460E. Ranefur1.241111113LJun 10 · 17:00E. Ranefur1.5391171392Y. Feng2.381191111113
S. Matsushima10
LAug 16 · 11:30T. Harimoto1.2811711694S. Matsushima3.50611411113WAug 14 · 16:35Q. Zhou3.0011971192S. Matsushima1.36511116113WAug 13 · 18:20Y. Feng7.50111141162S. Matsushima1.07135112113WAug 12 · 16:35S. Gnanasekaran9.00611651S. Matsushima1.0411811113LAug 9 · 04:45S. Matsushima2.5049111752T. Harimoto1.501111815114WAug 8 · 04:15S. Matsushima1.281011111104W. Jang3.50129118123WAug 6 · 05:00S. Matsushima1.131112113A. Lind5.5091070WAug 4 · 02:00S. Matsushima1.1714119113Q. Zhou4.501291191WJul 6 · 03:00S. Matsushima1.281111111154V. Sidorenko3.5051374112WJul 5 · 20:30S. Matsushima1.9612111012124F. Lebrun1.701071210101
Upcoming Matches
E. Ranefur
Nothing scheduled
S. Matsushima
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