TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12408563
Played Aug 14Finished
Elias Ranefur
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117511116511117
Ruibo Wen
Away
1.26
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:03 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeElias Ranefur to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingElias Ranefur above · Ruibo Wen below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 85 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Elias Ranefur at 54.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Elias Ranefur 2–0 Ruibo Wen Ruibo Wen has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:03What took a side1 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (72%)
Wen
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Ranefur 80% vs Wen 40%
Ranefur
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ranefur 60% vs Wen 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ranefur +2 · Wen -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Wen) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wen form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRanefur 3.25 / Wen 1.26
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Wen)+0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12408563
Ranefur3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Wen1.26
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRanefur2wins
AwayWen0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderRanefur leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRanefurWenR − WBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.042.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRanefurWenBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 5 / 1060%50%6 / 10 vs 5 / 10Avg sets wonper match2.42.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WenRanefur 3.25/Wen 1.26
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.1%
Wen · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ranefur won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 14 · 10:35E. Ranefur—115115113R. Wen—71161172
WAug 13 · 17:10E. Ranefur—115115113R. Wen—71161172
E. Ranefur10
LAug 22 · 11:20E. Ranefur1.2011791472H. Kwon4.335111112113WAug 21 · 08:00E. Ranefur1.1081111113A. Kurmangaliyev6.50112871LAug 15 · 17:45E. Ranefur4.33911911102S. Matsushima1.20118118123WAug 14 · 11:20T. Pucar1.8371171182E. Ranefur1.83115119113WAug 13 · 17:10E. Ranefur3.50115115113R. Wen1.2871161172WAug 10 · 18:20E. Ranefur2.001114113I. Chirita1.7331280LJun 29 · 01:35A. Rassenfosse1.6611711113E. Ranefur2.10811391WJun 28 · 24:30J. Lim1.53641171E. Ranefur2.3811118113WJun 27 · 01:05N. Burgos3.554460E. Ranefur1.241111113LJun 10 · 17:00E. Ranefur1.5391171392Y. Feng2.381191111113
R. Wen10
LAug 13 · 17:10E. Ranefur3.50115115113R. Wen1.2871161172WAug 10 · 11:45L. Bardet4.50561141R. Wen1.1711112113LAug 4 · 02:00R. Wen1.11811881J. Geraldo6.0011711113LJul 2 · 01:35H. Shinozuka2.25117114113R. Wen1.5781181142WJun 30 · 02:10L. Jancarik6.5094110R. Wen1.101111133LJun 20 · 09:35P. Xiang2.7561111143R. Wen1.401189121WJun 19 · 18:55T. Jarvis—1310871R. Wen—111211113WJun 19 · 11:20T. Jarvis6.501310871R. Wen1.10111211113LJun 12 · 15:35R. Wen1.363131111102H. Shinozuka3.00111575123WJun 11 · 11:20R. Wen1.1411118113K. Hamada5.00881141
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