TT Lossbeater/WTT Europe Smash Sweden
WTT Europe Smash SwedenMatch #12408536
Played Aug 13Finished
Peng Xiang
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411911117811––
Alexis Lebrun
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAlexis Lebrun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPeng Xiang above · Alexis Lebrun below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Alexis Lebrun at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Peng Xiang 0–1 Alexis Lebrun Peng Xiang has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:05What took a side2 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Lebrun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Form (L5)
Xiang 60% vs Lebrun 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Xiang 60% vs Lebrun 80%
Lebrun
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Xiang +1 · Lebrun +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Lebrun) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebrun form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsXiang 3.40 / Lebrun 1.30
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Lebrun)-0.0pp
WTT Europe Smash Sweden · #12408536
Xiang3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Lebrun1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeXiang0wins
AwayLebrun1wins
Lebrun leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricXiangLebrunX − LBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match32.040.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricXiangLebrunBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 10 vs 8 / 1060%80%6 / 10 vs 8 / 10Avg sets wonper match1.92.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebrunXiang 3.40/Lebrun 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Lebrun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lebrun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 13 · 10:35P. Xiang—491181A. Lebrun—11117113
P. Xiang10
WAug 11 · 11:10J. Lim2.101267111P. Xiang1.67101111133LAug 7 · 08:30T. Harimoto1.251111113P. Xiang3.757880WAug 6 · 03:10P. Xiang2.1011911113V. Sidorenko1.66811981WAug 4 · 02:00P. Xiang2.1011911113V. Sidorenko1.67811981LJun 20 · 16:45H. Calderano1.3612114113P. Xiang3.001081191WJun 20 · 09:35P. Xiang2.7561111143R. Wen1.401189121WJun 19 · 17:10P. Xiang—1114113M. Oikawa—71290WJun 19 · 10:45P. Xiang1.801114113M. Oikawa1.9171290LJun 10 · 23:00P. Xiang1.5010650G. Park2.501211113LApr 9 · 10:10P. Xiang1.176580L. Mladenovic4.501111113
A. Lebrun10
LAug 15 · 12:15A. Lebrun3.509711130T. Harimoto1.28111113154WAug 14 · 12:50S. Lin1.4011711782A. Lebrun2.75611911113WAug 11 · 18:20I. Quek6.0010820A. Lebrun1.11121183LAug 8 · 11:00T. Harimoto1.50191111114A. Lebrun2.50179490WAug 7 · 11:05D. Jorgic3.75110381A. Lebrun1.2591111113WAug 4 · 02:00M. Shah7.005580A. Lebrun1.081111113LJul 26 · 21:00H. Calderano1.36113111344A. Lebrun3.00911611113WJul 26 · 18:00J. An3.0012550A. Lebrun1.361411113WJul 26 · 16:00J. An2.9512550A. Lebrun1.331411113WJul 25 · 21:10P. Franziska1.915117101A. Lebrun1.8011811123
Upcoming Matches
P. Xiang
Nothing scheduled
A. Lebrun
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