TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12265503
Played Jul 21Finished
Daniele Pinto
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117119––––
Matthias Danzer
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniele Pinto to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniele Pinto above · Matthias Danzer below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Daniele Pinto at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Daniele Pinto 2–0 Matthias Danzer Matthias Danzer has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:03What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Danzer
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pinto 1969 vs Danzer 1805
Pinto
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pinto 60% vs Danzer 80%
Danzer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pinto 60% vs Danzer 80%
Danzer
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pinto -1 · Danzer +4
Danzer
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Danzer) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pinto form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPinto 2.75 / Danzer 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Danzer)+0.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12265503
Pinto2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Danzer1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePinto2wins
AwayDanzer0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderPinto leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPintoDanzerP − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.032.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPintoDanzerBasisWin rate · lifetime6 / 9 vs 192 / 25866.7%74.4%6 / 9 vs 192 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.32.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DanzerPinto 2.75/Danzer 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Danzer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pinto won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 21 · 09:44D. Pinto—1181310113M. Danzer—411111272
WJul 21 · 07:30D. Pinto—1111113M. Danzer—3790
D. Pinto10
LAug 25 · 08:35D. Pinto—11911892C. Pletea—411711113LAug 24 · 14:00D. Pinto1.22711681N. Callaba4.0011711113LJul 21 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.831251011113D. Pinto1.83101112292WJul 21 · 09:44D. Pinto1.611181310113M. Danzer2.20411111272LJul 20 · 16:30D. Pinto1.119580M. Fuchs6.001111113WJul 20 · 14:30D. Pinto1.671111113A. Mino2.109860LJul 20 · 12:30F. Bluhm1.44111112113D. Pinto2.63691431WJul 20 · 10:30A. Moreno6.006650D. Pinto1.111111113WJul 20 · 09:00D. Pinto—115115113M. Stefanidis—11151122WJul 20 · 07:30D. Pinto2.501111113D. Rinderer1.509670
M. Danzer10
LAug 25 · 11:00V. Yefimov1.46128711113M. Danzer2.55101111762WAug 25 · 09:45M. Danzer1.1812117113E. Huzsvar4.051071161WAug 25 · 07:30M. Henninger6.5011311692M. Danzer1.10911911113LAug 24 · 17:30M. Danzer1.8313781112V. Yefimov1.831111117113WAug 24 · 16:00A. Moreno8.506650M. Danzer1.051111113WAug 24 · 14:00P. Koloidenko8.001111181M. Danzer1.0611139113WAug 24 · 12:00M. Danzer—11117113E. Huzsvar—481191WAug 24 · 09:30M. Danzer1.031111113M. Kupfer10.004860WAug 24 · 08:00M. Danzer1.041111113J. Willeke8.107860LJul 21 · 09:44D. Pinto1.611181310113M. Danzer2.20411111272
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