TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT
Challenger Series TTMatch #12276497
Played Jul 21Finished
Daniel Rinderer
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12105111012112119
Daniele Pinto
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Rinderer to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Rinderer above · Daniele Pinto below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Daniel Rinderer at 57.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Rinderer 0–1 Daniele Pinto Daniel Rinderer has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:03What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pinto
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rinderer 1883 vs Pinto 2033
Pinto
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rinderer 100% vs Pinto 60%
Rinderer
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rinderer 80% vs Pinto 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rinderer +5 · Pinto +2
Rinderer
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rinderer) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rinderer form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRinderer 1.83 / Pinto 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rinderer)+4.0pp
Challenger Series TT · #12276497
Rinderer1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Pinto1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRinderer0wins
AwayPinto1wins
Pinto leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricRindererPintoR − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.033.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRindererPintoBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 157 vs 6 / 869.4%75%109 / 157 vs 6 / 8Avg sets wonper match2.42.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RindererRinderer 1.83/Pinto 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rinderer · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rinderer won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJul 20 · 07:30D. Rinderer—9670D. Pinto—1111113
D. Rinderer10
WAug 21 · 10:30D. Rinderer1.37111210113S. Almeida2.854101261LAug 21 · 09:10M. Danzer1.301112173D. Rinderer3.10610150WAug 21 · 07:50E. Huzsvar1.191114101142D. Rinderer4.40316128113LAug 21 · 07:00D. Rinderer1.1611129872N. Kizakisz4.454101111113WAug 20 · 15:30A. Moreno15.009510D. Rinderer1.011111113LAug 20 · 13:30M. Danzer1.731111113D. Rinderer2.006890WAug 20 · 12:00L. Qiu3.406530D. Rinderer1.301111113WAug 20 · 09:00D. Zech11.006430D. Rinderer1.021111113LAug 20 · 07:00S. Almeida3.60811711123D. Rinderer1.25117115102WJul 24 · 11:15D. Rinderer1.201111113L. Kraus4.009680
D. Pinto10
LAug 25 · 08:35D. Pinto—11911892C. Pletea—411711113LAug 24 · 14:00D. Pinto1.22711681N. Callaba4.0011711113WJul 21 · 09:44D. Pinto1.611181310113M. Danzer2.20411111272WJul 21 · 07:30D. Pinto2.751111113M. Danzer1.403790LJul 20 · 16:30D. Pinto1.119580M. Fuchs6.001111113WJul 20 · 14:30D. Pinto1.671111113A. Mino2.109860LJul 20 · 12:30F. Bluhm1.44111112113D. Pinto2.63691431WJul 20 · 10:30A. Moreno6.006650D. Pinto1.111111113WJul 20 · 09:00D. Pinto—115115113M. Stefanidis—11151122WJul 20 · 07:30D. Pinto2.501111113D. Rinderer1.509670
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.