TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12071592
Played Jun 20Finished
Jakub Dufek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117611811119611
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJakub Dufek above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11
91 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dufek 2–1 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDufek 2.00 / Kaderabek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kaderabek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12071592
Dufek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 16 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back42% 8 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Kaderabek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 51 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it77% 36 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDufek2wins
AwayKaderabek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDufek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDufekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayKaderabek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dufek0Kaderabek3n = 3Kaderabek took 3 of 3
S2Dufek1Kaderabek2n = 3Kaderabek took 2 of 3
S3Dufek2Kaderabek1n = 3Dufek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricDufekKaderabekD − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match39.041.0−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDufekKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 107 vs 242 / 47148.6%51.4%52 / 107 vs 242 / 471Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekDufek 2.00/Kaderabek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJun 13 · 10:00J. Dufek227780O. Kaderabek331111113
WMay 3 · 12:24J. Dufek4151114113O. Kaderabek4111812101
WMay 3 · 11:15J. Dufek541091111133O. Kaderabek49121178112
J. Dufek10
WJun 30 · 20:13J. Dufek2.2011119113J. Sr1.61791171LJun 30 · 19:45J. Dufek1.83691151S. Rejent1.8311116113LJun 30 · 18:15J. Chalupa1.501211113J. Dufek2.5010990LJun 30 · 17:45J. Sr1.6711119113J. Dufek2.10971161LJun 20 · 12:38J. Dufek1.83681191S. Rejent1.8311114113WJun 20 · 11:30S. Rejent1.919590J. Dufek1.801111113LJun 20 · 10:00J. Dufek1.735960M. Kocvara2.001111113WJun 13 · 12:34M. Makara1.7391112842J. Dufek2.001161011113LJun 13 · 11:30M. Zelinka1.5311111110153J. Dufek2.38138612132LJun 13 · 11:00J. Dufek1.73891161M. Makara2.0011116113
O. Kaderabek10
WSep 16 · 08:18O. Kaderabek2.637111110113M. Stibor1.4411981282LSep 16 · 07:15M. Stibor1.44911811113O. Kaderabek2.6311611792LSep 16 · 06:45O. Kaderabek1.61115111172M. Makara2.20911138113WSep 16 · 05:45O. Kaderabek2.101211910113L. Veigl1.67108111282LSep 15 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2.75111113592P. Wasik1.40691511113LSep 15 · 07:45P. Wasik1.4011119113O. Kaderabek2.75981191WSep 15 · 06:45L. Dobias1.8013391172O. Kaderabek1.911111115113WSep 15 · 05:15L. Adam2.0011891192O. Kaderabek1.73411115113LSep 13 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.36111111123O. Kaderabek3.009135101LSep 13 · 07:15O. Kaderabek3.25511851J. Chalupa1.3311811113
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