TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #11913544
Played May 20Finished
Simon Belik
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311114118117––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingSimon Belik above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 66 set 4, 11-7
66 points played in total.
H2H Simon Belik 1–7 Maciej Nowalinski Simon Belik has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Nowalinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowalinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelik 3.25 / Nowalinski 1.33
Signal prob.18% / 82%
Edge (Nowalinski)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #11913544
Belik3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog14% won 14 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back5% 4 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 56
Nowalinski1.33
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 222 of 380
Up 2–0, closes it98% 95 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it84% 169 of 202
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeBelik1wins
AwayNowalinski7wins
3 of 8 to a deciderNowalinski leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelik33.3%1 of 3
AwayNowalinski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belik3Nowalinski5n = 8Nowalinski took 5 of 8
S2Belik3Nowalinski5n = 8Nowalinski took 5 of 8
S3Belik1Nowalinski7n = 8Nowalinski took 7 of 8
S4Belik2Nowalinski4n = 6Nowalinski took 4 of 6
S5Belik1Nowalinski2n = 3Nowalinski took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricBelikNowalinskiB − NBasisWins17−6in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match34.642.8−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelikNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 398 vs 1265 / 250126.1%50.6%104 / 398 vs 1265 / 2501Avg sets wonper match1.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match32.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NowalinskiBelik 3.25/Nowalinski 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81.9%
Nowalinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Belik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LMay 4 · 10:40S. Belik—2M. Nowalinski—3
LMay 4 · 06:10S. Belik—1M. Nowalinski—3
WApr 27 · 07:35S. Belik—3M. Nowalinski—2
LNov 14 · 11:45S. Belik—1M. Nowalinski—3
LSep 19 · 10:25S. Belik—1M. Nowalinski—3
LAug 1 · 15:30S. Belik—2M. Nowalinski—3
LAug 1 · 03:30S. Belik—0M. Nowalinski—3
LJun 16 · 04:35S. Belik—0M. Nowalinski—3
S. Belik10
LAug 29 · 17:30S. Belik—611771A. Khanin—11511113LAug 29 · 16:45S. Belik—7550A. Abbasi—1111113LAug 28 · 17:20P. Zatowka—11118123S. Belik—7911101LMay 20 · 14:00D. Kostal1.44111110113S. Belik2.63841281WMay 20 · 13:10M. Olbrycht1.5341113111S. Belik2.3811815133LMay 20 · 12:20S. Belik2.75713100A. Daniel1.401115123LMay 20 · 09:55S. Sporek1.3611114113S. Belik3.00771151LMay 20 · 08:45D. Kostal1.571111113S. Belik2.257590LMay 20 · 07:35S. Belik3.2531070K. Wloczko1.331112113WMay 20 · 06:10K. Wisniewski1.83116271S. Belik1.8381111113
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
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