TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Sveshnykov vs Oleksandr Badanin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11711913151412––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeRoman Sveshnykov to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-11
Point 59 set 3, 10-11 · our read held Roman Sveshnykov at 73.2%
59 points drawn · the score is 33 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 12–6 Oleksandr Badanin Oleksandr Badanin has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5573.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Sveshnykov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Sveshnykov
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1289 vs Badanin 1154
Sveshnykov
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 40% vs Badanin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 50% vs Badanin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov -2 · Badanin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Sveshnykov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sveshnykov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 1.363 / Badanin 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Sveshnykov)-0.2pp
Setka Cup · #13276429
Sveshnykov1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 04) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 42 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Badanin3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 8 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov8wins
AwayBadanin2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSveshnykov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov71.4%5 of 7
AwayBadanin0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov7Badanin3n = 10Sveshnykov took 7 of 10
S2Sveshnykov8Badanin2n = 10Sveshnykov took 8 of 10
S3Sveshnykov6Badanin4n = 10Sveshnykov took 6 of 10
S4Sveshnykov3Badanin3n = 6split evenly
S5Sveshnykov3Badanin1n = 4Sveshnykov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovBadaninS − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.634.4+8.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 305 vs 153 / 32242.6%47.5%130 / 305 vs 153 / 322Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SveshnykovSveshnykov 1.36/Badanin 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Sveshnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sveshnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov4911911992O. Badanin49911711113
WSep 24 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov4281112113O. Badanin371171091
WMar 22 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov48711118113O. Badanin4111881132
WMar 13 · 07:30R. Sveshnykov331111113O. Badanin228590
WMar 10 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov361114113O. Badanin2241260
WMar 8 · 18:38R. Sveshnykov4111118113O. Badanin30771151
WMar 3 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov531012911113O. Badanin50121011892
WFeb 19 · 10:30R. Sveshnykov331111113O. Badanin158250
WFeb 13 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov48111177123O. Badanin44841111102
R. Sveshnykov10
WOct 11 · 13:30R. Sveshnykov1.2593111153A. Danylov3.7511117422LOct 4 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.3396100V. Yarovyi3.251111123LOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov1.3311911992O. Badanin3.25911711113WOct 4 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov1.361111109113V. Khyzhnyak3.0056121122LOct 4 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov1.1391151872S. Zherykhin5.501141116113WOct 3 · 17:11V. Saakian2.25891181R. Sveshnykov1.5711116113LOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791LOct 3 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov2.2512116141V. Saakian1.5714311163WOct 3 · 13:30S. Zherykhin5.00561191R. Sveshnykov1.1411117113WOct 3 · 12:30R. Sveshnykov1.281111113A. Danylov3.509450
O. Badanin10
LOct 11 · 13:00V. Yarovyi1.80111172O. Badanin1.914470LOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791WOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin1.801211341A. Lysyi1.9114911113LOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113WOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov1.3311911992O. Badanin3.25911711113WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113
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