TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Yarovyi vs Oleksandr Badanin 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711311115119118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Yarovyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingViacheslav Yarovyi above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Viacheslav Yarovyi at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Yarovyi 5–3 Oleksandr Badanin Oleksandr Badanin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Yarovyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yarovyi 988 vs Badanin 1140
Badanin
Wrong
both rated, 152 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yarovyi 40% vs Badanin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yarovyi 30% vs Badanin 50%
Badanin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Yarovyi -2 · Badanin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Yarovyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYarovyi 1.833 / Badanin 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Yarovyi)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13240361
Yarovyi1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Badanin1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeYarovyi5wins
AwayBadanin3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderYarovyi leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYarovyi100%4 of 4
AwayBadanin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yarovyi4Badanin4n = 8split evenly
S2Yarovyi3Badanin5n = 8Badanin took 5 of 8
S3Yarovyi4Badanin3n = 7Yarovyi took 4 of 7
S4Yarovyi4Badanin2n = 6Yarovyi took 4 of 6
S5Yarovyi3Badanin2n = 5Yarovyi took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricYarovyiBadaninY − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.942.6−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYarovyiBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 109 vs 154 / 32428.4%47.5%31 / 109 vs 154 / 324Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
YarovyiYarovyi 1.83/Badanin 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Yarovyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Yarovyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi43731111113O. Badanin4411115982
WJun 28 · 13:30V. Yarovyi45111211113O. Badanin34514781
WApr 28 · 09:00V. Yarovyi44111129113O. Badanin4497111162
LApr 10 · 06:00V. Yarovyi4077111142O. Badanin47111177113
WJul 14 · 09:00V. Yarovyi501112511113O. Badanin4441411692
LJul 12 · 06:00V. Yarovyi207580O. Badanin331111113
LMay 26 · 05:00V. Yarovyi44511111072O. Badanin52119912113
V. Yarovyi10
LOct 4 · 05:00V. Yarovyi2.0011116762S. Zherykhin1.73871111113LOct 3 · 17:39A. Danylov1.57371111113V. Yarovyi2.2511119572WOct 3 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.381161411113S. Zherykhin1.53131112892WOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791LOct 3 · 14:00V. Yarovyi2.63114841A. Danylov1.449111183LOct 3 · 13:00V. Yarovyi6.5055100V. Saakian1.101111123LAug 30 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.13118812113V. Yarovyi5.50411111072LAug 30 · 08:00V. Yarovyi3.257880V. Matviichuk1.331111113WAug 30 · 06:30V. Yarovyi2.631111113A. Lysyi1.449590LAug 30 · 05:00V. Yarovyi3.7561111782S. Honcharenko1.25118911113
O. Badanin10
WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113WOct 2 · 09:58O. Badanin3.0041211113M. Zavoloka1.361110591WOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391LOct 2 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.441111123O. Badanin2.6379100LOct 2 · 07:00V. Saakian1.4411913113O. Badanin2.633111181WOct 2 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.255730O. Badanin1.331111113WSep 24 · 17:09V. Hyriavyi3.2511790O. Badanin1.331311113LSep 24 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.3681112113O. Badanin3.001171091LSep 24 · 15:00O. Badanin3.7521111532O. Levytskyi1.25118711113
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