TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Sveshnykov vs Oleksandr Badanin 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911117911911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:23 and never touched: 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeRoman Sveshnykov to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Roman Sveshnykov at 75.3%
98 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 12–5 Oleksandr Badanin Oleksandr Badanin has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2375.3%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
clears by 0.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Sveshnykov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Sveshnykov
Wrong
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1333 vs Badanin 1148
Sveshnykov
Wrong
both rated, 185 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 40% vs Badanin 60%
Badanin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 70% vs Badanin 50%
Sveshnykov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov +1 · Badanin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% · Strong (leans Sveshnykov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 1.333 / Badanin 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Sveshnykov)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13240382
Sveshnykov1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite79% won 44 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Badanin3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 9 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov9wins
AwayBadanin1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSveshnykov leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov85.7%6 of 7
AwayBadanin0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov7Badanin3n = 10Sveshnykov took 7 of 10
S2Sveshnykov9Badanin1n = 10Sveshnykov took 9 of 10
S3Sveshnykov5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S4Sveshnykov3Badanin3n = 6split evenly
S5Sveshnykov4Badanin0n = 4Sveshnykov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovBadaninS − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.433.4+9.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 303 vs 155 / 32542.9%47.7%130 / 303 vs 155 / 325Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SveshnykovSveshnykov 1.33/Badanin 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Sveshnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Badanin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 24 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov4281112113O. Badanin371171091
WMar 22 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov48711118113O. Badanin4111881132
WMar 13 · 07:30R. Sveshnykov331111113O. Badanin228590
WMar 10 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov361114113O. Badanin2241260
WMar 8 · 18:38R. Sveshnykov4111118113O. Badanin30771151
WMar 3 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov531012911113O. Badanin50121011892
WFeb 19 · 10:30R. Sveshnykov331111113O. Badanin158250
WFeb 13 · 16:00R. Sveshnykov48111177123O. Badanin44841111102
WFeb 10 · 09:00R. Sveshnykov48111178113O. Badanin4048111162
R. Sveshnykov10
LOct 4 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.3396100V. Yarovyi3.251111123WOct 4 · 07:00R. Sveshnykov1.361111109113V. Khyzhnyak3.0056121122LOct 4 · 06:00R. Sveshnykov1.1391151872S. Zherykhin5.501141116113WOct 3 · 17:11V. Saakian2.25891181R. Sveshnykov1.5711116113LOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791LOct 3 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov2.2512116141V. Saakian1.5714311163WOct 3 · 13:30S. Zherykhin5.00561191R. Sveshnykov1.1411117113WOct 3 · 12:30R. Sveshnykov1.281111113A. Danylov3.509450WOct 2 · 15:30S. Zherykhin5.50149491R. Sveshnykov1.13121111113WOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161
O. Badanin10
WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113WOct 2 · 09:58O. Badanin3.0041211113M. Zavoloka1.361110591WOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391LOct 2 · 08:00M. Zavoloka1.441111123O. Badanin2.6379100LOct 2 · 07:00V. Saakian1.4411913113O. Badanin2.633111181WOct 2 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi3.255730O. Badanin1.331111113WSep 24 · 17:09V. Hyriavyi3.2511790O. Badanin1.331311113LSep 24 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.3681112113O. Badanin3.001171091
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