TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Sveshnykov vs Vihen Saakian 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141136111416––
Vihen Saakian
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:26 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeVihen Saakian to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Sveshnykov above · Vihen Saakian below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 87 set 4, 14-16 · our read held Vihen Saakian at 62.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Roman Sveshnykov 2–9 Vihen Saakian Roman Sveshnykov has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:2662.4%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.3pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Saakian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Saakian
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sveshnykov 1368 vs Saakian 1354
Sveshnykov
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sveshnykov 100% vs Saakian 100%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sveshnykov 90% vs Saakian 90%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sveshnykov +8 · Saakian +6
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Saakian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saakian form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSveshnykov 2.25 / Saakian 1.571
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Saakian)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234689
Sveshnykov2.25
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 28 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back15% 6 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Saakian1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 44 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSveshnykov1wins
AwaySaakian9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSaakian leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSveshnykov25%1 of 4
AwaySaakian100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sveshnykov4Saakian6n = 10Saakian took 6 of 10
S2Sveshnykov2Saakian8n = 10Saakian took 8 of 10
S3Sveshnykov3Saakian7n = 10Saakian took 7 of 10
S4Sveshnykov2Saakian4n = 6Saakian took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSveshnykovSaakianSveshnykov − SaakianBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.039.6−5.6per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSveshnykovSaakianBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 298 vs 139 / 26143%53.3%128 / 298 vs 139 / 261Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SaakianSveshnykov 2.25/Saakian 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Saakian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Saakian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 10 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov3910118101V. Saakian4112611123
LMar 9 · 11:03R. Sveshnykov2283110V. Saakian351111133
WMar 9 · 10:00R. Sveshnykov331111113V. Saakian187380
LMar 4 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov386131271V. Saakian47111510113
LMar 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov47117101182V. Saakian51911128113
LFeb 10 · 11:34R. Sveshnykov196490V. Saakian331111113
LFeb 10 · 08:00R. Sveshnykov35118791V. Saakian4071111113
LJan 5 · 17:30R. Sveshnykov4413571182V. Saakian521111118113
LDec 31 · 07:30R. Sveshnykov377111181V. Saakian4311138113
LDec 24 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov26115100V. Saakian361311123
R. Sveshnykov10
LOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791WOct 3 · 13:30S. Zherykhin5.00561191R. Sveshnykov1.1411117113WOct 3 · 12:30R. Sveshnykov1.281111113A. Danylov3.509450WOct 2 · 15:30S. Zherykhin5.50149491R. Sveshnykov1.13121111113WOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161WOct 2 · 13:30O. Levytskyi1.73114681R. Sveshnykov2.0081111113WOct 2 · 12:30R. Sveshnykov1.281011711113A. Danylov3.5012311462WSep 27 · 17:30Y. Zvolynskyi2.258911111R. Sveshnykov1.5711118133WSep 27 · 16:30R. Sveshnykov1.3091111113A. Danylov3.40113471LSep 27 · 15:30R. Sveshnykov1.83813581O. Levytskyi1.83111111113
V. Saakian10
WOct 3 · 13:00V. Yarovyi6.5055100V. Saakian1.101111123WOct 3 · 12:00S. Zherykhin4.5091111592V. Saakian1.17119711113WOct 2 · 10:29Y. Urezchenko3.00137611102V. Saakian1.361111119123WOct 2 · 09:30V. Saakian1.7311117113M. Zavoloka2.00751191WOct 2 · 08:30V. Saakian1.171111123V. Hyriavyi4.5068100WOct 2 · 07:00V. Saakian1.4411913113O. Badanin2.633111181LOct 2 · 06:00V. Saakian1.1711914141Y. Urezchenko4.5041116163WSep 25 · 10:30V. Hyriavyi3.759480V. Saakian1.251111113WSep 25 · 09:30V. Saakian1.4011121112113S. Honcharenko2.7591471452WSep 25 · 08:30V. Saakian1.36121111113V. Hyriavyi3.00144551
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