TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vihen Saakian vs Yurii Urezchenko 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Vihen Saakian
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11491114161416––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeVihen Saakian to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVihen Saakian above · Yurii Urezchenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 14-16
Point 95 set 4, 14-16 · our read held Vihen Saakian at 81.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vihen Saakian 20–9 Yurii Urezchenko Yurii Urezchenko has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5881.0%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 4.8pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Saakian
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-9 in 29
Saakian
Wrong
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Saakian 1321 vs Urezchenko 1143
Saakian
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Saakian 80% vs Urezchenko 40%
Saakian
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Saakian 60% vs Urezchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Saakian +4 · Urezchenko +1
Saakian
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Saakian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urezchenko form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSaakian 1.166 / Urezchenko 4.50
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Saakian)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13228904
Saakian1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 40 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Urezchenko4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 36 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSaakian7wins
AwayUrezchenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSaakian leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSaakian87.5%7 of 8
AwayUrezchenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Saakian8Urezchenko2n = 10Saakian took 8 of 10
S2Saakian5Urezchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Saakian6Urezchenko4n = 10Saakian took 6 of 10
S4Saakian2Urezchenko1n = 3Saakian took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSaakianUrezchenkoS − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match35.730.0+5.7per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSaakianUrezchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 255 vs 198 / 45052.2%44%133 / 255 vs 198 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.335.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SaakianSaakian 1.17/Urezchenko 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
81%
Saakian · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:00V. Saakian4811914141Y. Urezchenko4741116163
WApr 29 · 06:30V. Saakian331111113Y. Urezchenko154560
WApr 21 · 10:00V. Saakian331111113Y. Urezchenko237880
WApr 21 · 05:00V. Saakian44111111113Y. Urezchenko31413681
LApr 15 · 05:00V. Saakian2391040Y. Urezchenko341112113
LApr 14 · 09:30V. Saakian2789100Y. Urezchenko341111123
WApr 14 · 06:00V. Saakian341112113Y. Urezchenko2571080
WApr 8 · 10:29V. Saakian331111113Y. Urezchenko259790
WApr 8 · 08:00V. Saakian49136811113Y. Urezchenko48111111692
WApr 3 · 06:00V. Saakian331111113Y. Urezchenko183960
V. Saakian10
WOct 2 · 07:00V. Saakian1.4411913113O. Badanin2.633111181WSep 25 · 10:30V. Hyriavyi3.759480V. Saakian1.251111113WSep 25 · 09:30V. Saakian1.4011121112113S. Honcharenko2.7591471452WSep 25 · 08:30V. Saakian1.36121111113V. Hyriavyi3.00144551WSep 25 · 07:00V. Saakian1.171112113V. Khyzhnyak4.5041040LSep 25 · 06:00V. Saakian1.444730V. Matviichuk2.631111113WApr 30 · 10:33V. Hyriavyi2.205940V. Saakian1.611111113LApr 30 · 09:30S. Honcharenko3.751161110113V. Saakian1.2591151252LApr 30 · 08:00V. Saakian1.61117891V. Hyriavyi2.2071111113LApr 30 · 06:30V. Saakian1.8396120V. Simchuk1.831111143
Y. Urezchenko10
WOct 2 · 05:00M. Zavoloka1.2211411572Y. Urezchenko4.00211511113LOct 1 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.401111113Y. Urezchenko2.752870LOct 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.0011211282V. Khyzhnyak1.73711811113WOct 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko2.001111113S. Honcharenko1.735670LOct 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.507860M. Zavoloka1.281111113WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143LSep 10 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.80711118113Y. Urezchenko1.9111881192
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