TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Urezchenko vs Serhii Honcharenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115116117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:26 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Serhii Honcharenko @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingYurii Urezchenko above · Serhii Honcharenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 56.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Urezchenko 67–63 Serhii Honcharenko Serhii Honcharenko has won 63 of their 130 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 05:2656.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Honcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
67-63 in 130
Urezchenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 130, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urezchenko 1115 vs Honcharenko 1271
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urezchenko 60% vs Honcharenko 40%
Urezchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urezchenko 40% vs Honcharenko 60%
Honcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urezchenko -1 · Honcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Honcharenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrezchenko 2.00 / Honcharenko 1.727
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Honcharenko)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223576
Urezchenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 35 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Honcharenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 106 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it88% 85 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrezchenko5wins
AwayHoncharenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrezchenko75%3 of 4
AwayHoncharenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urezchenko4Honcharenko6n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Urezchenko6Honcharenko4n = 10Urezchenko took 6 of 10
S3Urezchenko5Honcharenko4n = 9Urezchenko took 5 of 9
S4Urezchenko5Honcharenko4n = 9Urezchenko took 5 of 9
S5Urezchenko2Honcharenko3n = 5Honcharenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrezchenkoHoncharenkoU − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.644.6−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrezchenkoHoncharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 449 vs 431 / 84443.9%51.1%197 / 449 vs 431 / 844Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoUrezchenko 2.00/Honcharenko 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.9%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Serhii Honcharenko @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Urezchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 8 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko46711512113S. Honcharenko44116111062
LSep 1 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko4411138662S. Honcharenko506111111113
WAug 31 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko4312811123S. Honcharenko4010119101
LAug 25 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko45101161172S. Honcharenko47128115113
WAug 24 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko4151312113S. Honcharenko3811111061
WAug 19 · 07:00Y. Urezchenko46117114133S. Honcharenko48611911112
LJul 21 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko343131081S. Honcharenko45111112113
WJul 20 · 10:34Y. Urezchenko3711312113S. Honcharenko399111091
LJul 20 · 09:30Y. Urezchenko47712111072S. Honcharenko501110612113
Y. Urezchenko10
LOct 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.507860M. Zavoloka1.281111113WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143LSep 10 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.80711118113Y. Urezchenko1.9111881192WSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113LSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113LSep 8 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko1.407650V. Hyriavyi2.751111113LSep 8 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.4059140M. Zavoloka1.301111163
S. Honcharenko10
LOct 1 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.7359110M. Zavoloka2.001111133WOct 1 · 05:30S. Honcharenko1.20111110113V. Khyzhnyak4.33851261LSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133LSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890LSep 29 · 06:30S. Honcharenko2.10814971E. Bakin1.67111211113WSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861LSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak4.70115116133S. Honcharenko1.15811511112WSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.171111113V. Khyzhnyak4.507490LSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113
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