TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Volodymyr Khyzhnyak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181151012116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:26 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Volodymyr Khyzhnyak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 84.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 21–2 Volodymyr Khyzhnyak Volodymyr Khyzhnyak has won 2 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2684.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-2 in 23
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 19 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1264 vs Khyzhnyak 1111
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 40% vs Khyzhnyak 80%
Khyzhnyak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Khyzhnyak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -2 · Khyzhnyak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans Honcharenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khyzhnyak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.20 / Khyzhnyak 4.333
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (Honcharenko)+1.3pp
Setka Cup · #13224032
Honcharenko1.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 29)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 106 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it88% 85 of 97
Khyzhnyak4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 24 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back8% 4 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko9wins
AwayKhyzhnyak1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%7 of 7
AwayKhyzhnyak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko7Khyzhnyak3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Honcharenko9Khyzhnyak1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S3Honcharenko7Khyzhnyak3n = 10Honcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Honcharenko4Khyzhnyak1n = 5Honcharenko took 4 of 5
S5Honcharenko2Khyzhnyak1n = 3Honcharenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoKhyzhnyakH − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.730.2+9.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoKhyzhnyakBasisWin rate · lifetime430 / 843 vs 61 / 17551%34.9%430 / 843 vs 61 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.634.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.20/Khyzhnyak 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 10:33S. Honcharenko46811511112V. Khyzhnyak46115116133
WSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Khyzhnyak207490
WSep 25 · 08:00S. Honcharenko3811114123V. Khyzhnyak369611101
WSep 22 · 07:00S. Honcharenko3911611113V. Khyzhnyak29411681
WSep 4 · 07:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Khyzhnyak217680
WAug 14 · 05:00S. Honcharenko551211912113V. Khyzhnyak48148111052
WJul 21 · 07:00S. Honcharenko331111113V. Khyzhnyak249690
WJun 9 · 05:30S. Honcharenko331111113V. Khyzhnyak187920
WMay 4 · 06:00S. Honcharenko49711119113V. Khyzhnyak3511731132
WApr 22 · 09:30S. Honcharenko381111163V. Khyzhnyak2547140
S. Honcharenko10
LOct 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko2.001111113S. Honcharenko1.735670LSep 29 · 10:30S. Honcharenko2.50104110V. Simchuk1.501211133LSep 29 · 09:30V. Simchuk1.501111113S. Honcharenko2.507880WSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890LSep 29 · 06:30S. Honcharenko2.10814971E. Bakin1.67111211113WSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861LSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak4.70115116133S. Honcharenko1.15811511112WSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.171111113V. Khyzhnyak4.507490WSep 28 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.4011118113A. Lysyi2.75791161WSep 28 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25611411113V. Hyriavyi3.7511711742
V. Khyzhnyak10
WSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak4.70115116133S. Honcharenko1.15811511112LSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.171111113V. Khyzhnyak4.507490WSep 28 · 08:00V. Khyzhnyak1.611111113V. Hyriavyi2.206750WSep 28 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak5.0011912113A. Lysyi1.149111091WSep 28 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak2.7581112113V. Matviichuk1.401161051LSep 25 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.6371171272V. Matviichuk1.441191110113LSep 25 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.1411114123V. Khyzhnyak5.009611101LSep 25 · 07:00V. Saakian1.171112113V. Khyzhnyak4.5041040LSep 25 · 05:30V. Hyriavyi2.20118118113V. Khyzhnyak1.6171161192WSep 22 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.001211113M. Zavoloka1.7310570
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