TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Evgenii Bakin 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111412911711––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Evgenii Bakin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 83 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Evgenii Bakin at 56.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 6–11 Evgenii Bakin Serhii Honcharenko has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:27What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bakin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Bakin
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1264 vs Bakin 1195
Honcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 80% vs Bakin 0%
Honcharenko
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 50% vs Bakin 20%
Honcharenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +1 · Bakin -6
Bakin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Bakin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bakin form (0%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 2.10 / Bakin 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Bakin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13212438
Honcharenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 72 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 57
Bakin1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 25 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko2wins
AwayBakin8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBakin leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko40%2 of 5
AwayBakin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko5Bakin5n = 10split evenly
S2Honcharenko9Bakin1n = 10Honcharenko took 9 of 10
S3Honcharenko2Bakin8n = 10Bakin took 8 of 10
S4Honcharenko3Bakin5n = 8Bakin took 5 of 8
S5Honcharenko0Bakin5n = 5Bakin took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoBakinH − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.542.1−0.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoBakinBasisWin rate · lifetime435 / 848 vs 62 / 11751.3%53%435 / 848 vs 62 / 117Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.734.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BakinHoncharenko 2.10/Bakin 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bakin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 06:30S. Honcharenko38814971E. Bakin45111211113
LAug 2 · 10:08S. Honcharenko4391141182E. Bakin47117117113
WAug 2 · 07:58S. Honcharenko341111123E. Bakin2284100
LMay 29 · 05:30S. Honcharenko45111158102E. Bakin46751111123
LMay 1 · 16:30S. Honcharenko4112118101E. Bakin46101311123
LJan 28 · 11:30S. Honcharenko388141061E. Bakin46111212113
LJan 28 · 06:00S. Honcharenko4581171182E. Bakin44117114113
LJan 5 · 06:30S. Honcharenko3881131152E. Bakin44113118113
WJan 3 · 09:00S. Honcharenko421615113E. Bakin33141360
LOct 29 · 10:54S. Honcharenko51111191192E. Bakin48761113113
S. Honcharenko10
WSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861LSep 28 · 10:33V. Khyzhnyak4.70115116133S. Honcharenko1.15811511112WSep 28 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.171111113V. Khyzhnyak4.507490WSep 28 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.4011118113A. Lysyi2.75791161WSep 28 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25611411113V. Hyriavyi3.7511711742LSep 28 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.535230V. Matviichuk2.381111113LSep 27 · 16:59S. Honcharenko1.61610111152O. Levytskyi2.20111245113LSep 27 · 16:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.441111113S. Honcharenko2.637850WSep 27 · 14:30O. Levytskyi2.25121111772S. Honcharenko1.571091311103LSep 27 · 13:00R. Sveshnykov1.67111111113S. Honcharenko2.10137281
E. Bakin10
LSep 29 · 05:30E. Bakin1.28121111792A. Lysyi3.501091311113LSep 23 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.501111113E. Bakin2.506770LSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8311127113E. Bakin1.838101171LSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113LSep 21 · 10:03E. Bakin2.2521381122Y. Zvolynskyi1.571111115113WSep 21 · 09:00E. Bakin1.25611117113A. Lysyi3.7511761162LSep 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan1.731111113E. Bakin2.007720LSep 21 · 07:00Y. Zvolynskyi1.617111411113E. Bakin2.2011816882WSep 21 · 05:30O. Shvydkyi3.0012671162E. Bakin1.361011116113
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