TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vasyl Matviichuk vs Yurii Urezchenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112118117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVasyl Matviichuk above · Yurii Urezchenko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 64.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Matviichuk 52–37 Yurii Urezchenko Yurii Urezchenko has won 37 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1864.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 6.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Matviichuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-37 in 89
Matviichuk
Correct
gap of 15 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matviichuk 1111 vs Urezchenko 1124
Urezchenko
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matviichuk 0% vs Urezchenko 40%
Urezchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matviichuk 20% vs Urezchenko 50%
Urezchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Matviichuk -7 · Urezchenko -1
Matviichuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Matviichuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatviichuk 1.40 / Urezchenko 2.75
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Matviichuk)-6.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224053
Matviichuk1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Urezchenko2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog28% won 35 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back13% 12 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatviichuk8wins
AwayUrezchenko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatviichuk77.8%7 of 9
AwayUrezchenkon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matviichuk9Urezchenko1n = 10Matviichuk took 9 of 10
S2Matviichuk7Urezchenko3n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S3Matviichuk7Urezchenko3n = 10Matviichuk took 7 of 10
S4Matviichuk2Urezchenko3n = 5Urezchenko took 3 of 5
S5Matviichuk2Urezchenko1n = 3Matviichuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatviichukUrezchenkoM − UBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.432.3+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatviichukUrezchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime288 / 604 vs 197 / 44947.7%43.9%288 / 604 vs 197 / 449Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukMatviichuk 1.40/Urezchenko 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Matviichuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk5611111011133Y. Urezchenko48661213112
WSep 8 · 08:00V. Matviichuk331111113Y. Urezchenko153570
WAug 31 · 09:30V. Matviichuk341111123Y. Urezchenko2899100
LAug 25 · 08:00V. Matviichuk4315116472Y. Urezchenko551391111113
WAug 24 · 08:00V. Matviichuk3731112113Y. Urezchenko351181061
WAug 19 · 09:30V. Matviichuk3911611113Y. Urezchenko30511861
WAug 10 · 09:30V. Matviichuk331111113Y. Urezchenko218760
WJul 21 · 05:00V. Matviichuk471110114113Y. Urezchenko3731251162
WJul 20 · 08:00V. Matviichuk331111113Y. Urezchenko228590
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:00V. Matviichuk1.53651151V. Khyzhnyak2.3811116113LOct 1 · 06:00V. Matviichuk2.6316650M. Zavoloka1.441811113LSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192LSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051LSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861WSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771WSep 28 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.63591141V. Matviichuk1.4411114113LSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112
Y. Urezchenko10
LOct 1 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.0011211282V. Khyzhnyak1.73711811113WOct 1 · 06:30Y. Urezchenko2.001111113S. Honcharenko1.735670LOct 1 · 05:00Y. Urezchenko3.507860M. Zavoloka1.281111113WSep 10 · 10:03Y. Urezchenko1.251311113O. Shvydkyi3.7511450LSep 10 · 09:00V. Matviichuk1.4011111011133Y. Urezchenko2.75661213112WSep 10 · 07:30O. Shvydkyi3.50101140Y. Urezchenko1.281213113WSep 10 · 06:00S. Zherykhin2.6371111121Y. Urezchenko1.4411713143LSep 10 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak1.80711118113Y. Urezchenko1.9111881192WSep 8 · 09:30S. Honcharenko1.53116111062Y. Urezchenko2.38711512113LSep 8 · 08:00Y. Urezchenko2.753570V. Matviichuk1.401111113
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