TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Evgenii Bakin vs Vasyl Matviichuk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181191012811119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:25 and never touched: 74.3% is still 74.3%
Graded at full timeEvgenii Bakin to win
74.3%
74.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgenii Bakin above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Evgenii Bakin at 74.3%
100 points played in total.
H2H Evgenii Bakin 5–2 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:25What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Bakin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Bakin
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bakin 1201 vs Matviichuk 1143
Bakin
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bakin 20% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bakin 20% vs Matviichuk 60%
Matviichuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bakin +1 · Matviichuk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Bakin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBakin 1.28 / Matviichuk 3.50
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Bakin)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13213017
Bakin1.28
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 25 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Matviichuk3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 36 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back8% 6 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBakin5wins
AwayMatviichuk2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderBakin leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBakin100%5 of 5
AwayMatviichukn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bakin5Matviichuk2n = 7Bakin took 5 of 7
S2Bakin5Matviichuk2n = 7Bakin took 5 of 7
S3Bakin4Matviichuk3n = 7Bakin took 4 of 7
S4Bakin2Matviichuk3n = 5Matviichuk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBakinMatviichukB − MBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match39.133.7+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakinMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 119 vs 288 / 60252.9%47.8%63 / 119 vs 288 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BakinBakin 1.28/Matviichuk 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.3%
Bakin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bakin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin511111108113V. Matviichuk4989121192
WMay 21 · 09:00E. Bakin331111113V. Matviichuk156090
WMay 19 · 05:30E. Bakin3711114113V. Matviichuk30461191
WJan 28 · 07:00E. Bakin4211811123V. Matviichuk304115101
LOct 30 · 10:58E. Bakin32571191V. Matviichuk3811115113
LOct 30 · 10:00E. Bakin467149161V. Matviichuk52111211183
WAug 12 · 09:00E. Bakin331111113V. Matviichuk226790
E. Bakin10
LSep 29 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.221111113E. Bakin4.004690WSep 29 · 06:30S. Honcharenko2.10814971E. Bakin1.67111211113LSep 29 · 05:30E. Bakin1.28121111792A. Lysyi3.501091311113LSep 23 · 08:30V. Simchuk1.501111113E. Bakin2.506770LSep 23 · 07:30E. Bakin4.506430M. Pohorilyi1.171111113LSep 23 · 06:30M. Zavoloka1.8311127113E. Bakin1.838101171LSep 23 · 05:30E. Bakin1.801110591V. Kurliuk1.9191211113LSep 21 · 10:03E. Bakin2.2521381122Y. Zvolynskyi1.571111115113WSep 21 · 09:00E. Bakin1.25611117113A. Lysyi3.7511761162LSep 21 · 08:00I. Sorochan1.731111113E. Bakin2.007720
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051LSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861WSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771WSep 28 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.63591141V. Matviichuk1.4411114113LSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112WSep 28 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.535230V. Matviichuk2.381111113LSep 28 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak2.7581112113V. Matviichuk1.401161051WSep 25 · 10:58V. Matviichuk2.25111011113S. Honcharenko1.57712481WSep 25 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.6371171272V. Matviichuk1.441191110113
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