TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anatoliy Lysyi vs Vasyl Matviichuk 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVasyl Matviichuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnatoliy Lysyi above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Vasyl Matviichuk at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Anatoliy Lysyi 29–31 Vasyl Matviichuk Anatoliy Lysyi has won 29 of their 60 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Matviichuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-31 in 60
Matviichuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 60, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysyi 1183 vs Matviichuk 1156
Lysyi
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysyi 20% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysyi 40% vs Matviichuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysyi -2 · Matviichuk -3
Matviichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Matviichuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysyi 2.10 / Matviichuk 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matviichuk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13212432
Lysyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 37 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Matviichuk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 85 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it84% 69 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysyi4wins
AwayMatviichuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMatviichuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysyi50%3 of 6
AwayMatviichuk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysyi6Matviichuk4n = 10Lysyi took 6 of 10
S2Lysyi4Matviichuk6n = 10Matviichuk took 6 of 10
S3Lysyi2Matviichuk8n = 10Matviichuk took 8 of 10
S4Lysyi6Matviichuk3n = 9Lysyi took 6 of 9
S5Lysyi1Matviichuk2n = 3Matviichuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysyiMatviichukL − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.4−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysyiMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 414 vs 289 / 60244.9%48%186 / 414 vs 289 / 602Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MatviichukLysyi 2.10/Matviichuk 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Matviichuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lysyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 10:03A. Lysyi31611771V. Matviichuk3811511113
WSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi46114711133V. Matviichuk39411112112
LSep 6 · 07:30A. Lysyi144550V. Matviichuk331111113
WSep 5 · 14:30A. Lysyi5019119113V. Matviichuk441791171
LAug 31 · 08:30A. Lysyi356171021V. Matviichuk49111512113
LAug 30 · 10:05A. Lysyi321112451V. Matviichuk4371411113
WAug 30 · 05:30A. Lysyi4011711113V. Matviichuk31811481
LAug 24 · 10:11A. Lysyi3811831242V. Matviichuk518111110113
WAug 24 · 05:30A. Lysyi4181111113V. Matviichuk32118581
LAug 10 · 10:30A. Lysyi4211771162V. Matviichuk44811113113
A. Lysyi10
WSep 29 · 10:02A. Lysyi1.401111113E. Bakin2.759340LSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890LSep 29 · 07:00V. Simchuk1.2011413123A. Lysyi4.3371111101WSep 29 · 05:30E. Bakin1.28121111792A. Lysyi3.501091311113LSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771LSep 28 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.4011118113A. Lysyi2.75791161WSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112LSep 28 · 06:30V. Khyzhnyak5.0011912113A. Lysyi1.149111091WSep 28 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.2881111113V. Hyriavyi3.50118791WSep 21 · 10:35A. Lysyi3.5011117113I. Sorochan1.28571141
V. Matviichuk10
LSep 29 · 07:30E. Bakin1.281111108113V. Matviichuk3.5089121192LSep 29 · 06:00V. Simchuk1.28111012113V. Matviichuk3.504121051LSep 29 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.6111911113V. Matviichuk2.20211861WSep 28 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.8011511113A. Lysyi1.91611771WSep 28 · 09:00V. Hyriavyi2.63591141V. Matviichuk1.4411114113LSep 28 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.10114711133V. Matviichuk1.67411112112WSep 28 · 06:00S. Honcharenko1.535230V. Matviichuk2.381111113LSep 28 · 05:00V. Khyzhnyak2.7581112113V. Matviichuk1.401161051WSep 25 · 10:58V. Matviichuk2.25111011113S. Honcharenko1.57712481WSep 25 · 09:00V. Khyzhnyak2.6371171272V. Matviichuk1.441191110113
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