TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Viacheslav Yarovyi vs Oleksandr Badanin 2-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
11411477––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeViacheslav Yarovyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleksandr Badanin @ 1.91 · Pending
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingViacheslav Yarovyi above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-7
Point 45 set 3, 7-7 · our read held Viacheslav Yarovyi at 54.0%
45 points played in total.
H2H Viacheslav Yarovyi 5–3 Oleksandr Badanin Oleksandr Badanin has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 21:39Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Badanin @ 1.91 · Pending
54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Yarovyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Yarovyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yarovyi 997 vs Badanin 1145
Badanin
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yarovyi 40% vs Badanin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yarovyi 40% vs Badanin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yarovyi -1 · Badanin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Yarovyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Badanin form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYarovyi 1.80 / Badanin 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Yarovyi)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276826
Yarovyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Oct 04) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 5 of 11
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Badanin1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 8 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeYarovyi5wins
AwayBadanin3wins
5 of 8 to a deciderYarovyi leads 5–3, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYarovyi100%4 of 4
AwayBadanin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yarovyi4Badanin4n = 8split evenly
S2Yarovyi3Badanin5n = 8Badanin took 5 of 8
S3Yarovyi4Badanin3n = 7Yarovyi took 4 of 7
S4Yarovyi4Badanin2n = 6Yarovyi took 4 of 6
S5Yarovyi3Badanin2n = 5Yarovyi took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricYarovyiBadaninY − BBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.942.6−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYarovyiBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 112 vs 149 / 31428.6%47.5%32 / 112 vs 149 / 314Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninYarovyi 1.80/Badanin 1.91
Not settled
What we said
54%
Yarovyi · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleksandr Badanin @ 1.91 · Pending
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
2–0
Yarovyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi43731111113O. Badanin4411115982
WJun 28 · 13:30V. Yarovyi45111211113O. Badanin34514781
WApr 28 · 09:00V. Yarovyi44111129113O. Badanin4497111162
LApr 10 · 06:00V. Yarovyi4077111142O. Badanin47111177113
WJul 14 · 09:00V. Yarovyi501112511113O. Badanin4441411692
LJul 12 · 06:00V. Yarovyi207580O. Badanin331111113
LMay 26 · 05:00V. Yarovyi44511111072O. Badanin52119912113
V. Yarovyi10
LOct 4 · 10:30S. Zherykhin1.80911511113V. Yarovyi1.9111611992WOct 4 · 09:30R. Sveshnykov1.3396100V. Yarovyi3.251111123LOct 4 · 08:00V. Yarovyi2.2511119852V. Khyzhnyak1.57571111113WOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:00V. Yarovyi2.0011116762S. Zherykhin1.73871111113LOct 3 · 17:39A. Danylov1.57371111113V. Yarovyi2.2511119572WOct 3 · 16:30V. Yarovyi2.381161411113S. Zherykhin1.53131112892WOct 3 · 15:30V. Yarovyi2.2511911113R. Sveshnykov1.57311791LOct 3 · 14:00V. Yarovyi2.63114841A. Danylov1.449111183LOct 3 · 13:00V. Yarovyi6.5055100V. Saakian1.101111123
O. Badanin10
LOct 11 · 12:00R. Sveshnykov1.36111113143O. Badanin3.007915121LOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791WOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin1.801211341A. Lysyi1.9114911113LOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113WOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov1.3311911992O. Badanin3.25911711113WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113
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