TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Oleksandr Badanin 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115117119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Badanin to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Oleksandr Badanin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Oleksandr Badanin at 59.6%
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 30–60 Oleksandr Badanin Serhii Honcharenko has won 30 of their 90 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2959.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 5.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Badanin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-60 in 90
Badanin
Wrong
gap of 30 in 90, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1213 vs Badanin 1154
Honcharenko
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 20% vs Badanin 60%
Badanin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 40% vs Badanin 60%
Badanin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko +1 · Badanin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Badanin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Honcharenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 2.375 / Badanin 1.533
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Badanin)-5.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245236
Honcharenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 72 of 182
Down 0–1, comes back17% 18 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 60
Badanin1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 32 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko5wins
AwayBadanin5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%3 of 3
AwayBadanin71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko3Badanin7n = 10Badanin took 7 of 10
S2Honcharenko5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S3Honcharenko5Badanin5n = 10split evenly
S4Honcharenko4Badanin3n = 7Honcharenko took 4 of 7
S5Honcharenko3Badanin2n = 5Honcharenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoBadaninH − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.0−2.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoBadaninBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 847 vs 156 / 32751.1%47.7%433 / 847 vs 156 / 327Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BadaninHoncharenko 2.38/Badanin 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.6%
Badanin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko4291111113O. Badanin32115791
WSep 16 · 05:00S. Honcharenko42114511113O. Badanin4261111952
LSep 4 · 10:09S. Honcharenko349114101O. Badanin4311911123
LSep 4 · 08:30S. Honcharenko4459111182O. Badanin40111125113
WSep 1 · 07:00S. Honcharenko331111113O. Badanin237880
WJul 2 · 09:00S. Honcharenko521011118123O. Badanin45126611102
LJun 22 · 09:30S. Honcharenko166640O. Badanin331111113
WJun 17 · 07:30S. Honcharenko501161210113O. Badanin48811101272
LMay 29 · 10:38S. Honcharenko3961171142O. Badanin51119119113
LMay 29 · 07:00S. Honcharenko185490O. Badanin331111113
S. Honcharenko10
WOct 5 · 08:30S. Honcharenko1.361191110113A. Lysyi3.0061121272LOct 5 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25311871V. Hyriavyi3.7511211113LOct 5 · 06:00S. Honcharenko2.0011118632M. Zavoloka1.73971111113LOct 2 · 16:00A. Danylov3.25211113113S. Honcharenko1.3311891182LOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161WOct 2 · 13:00S. Zherykhin4.5077100S. Honcharenko1.171111123WOct 2 · 12:00O. Levytskyi2.107411101S. Honcharenko1.6711118123LOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.7359110M. Zavoloka2.001111133
O. Badanin10
WOct 5 · 08:00O. Badanin1.251111113V. Hyriavyi3.756650LOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin1.801211341A. Lysyi1.9114911113LOct 5 · 05:00O. Badanin2.3811127942M. Zavoloka1.533101111113WOct 4 · 09:59V. Khyzhnyak2.10101090O. Badanin1.671212113WOct 4 · 08:30R. Sveshnykov1.3311911992O. Badanin3.25911711113WOct 4 · 07:30O. Badanin1.537101111113S. Zherykhin2.3811124472LOct 4 · 06:30V. Yarovyi1.83731111113O. Badanin1.8311115982LOct 4 · 05:30O. Badanin1.5011781192V. Khyzhnyak2.50911114113WOct 2 · 09:58O. Badanin3.0041211113M. Zavoloka1.361110591WOct 2 · 09:00O. Badanin1.7361115113Y. Urezchenko2.001161391
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