TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Honcharenko vs Anatoliy Lysyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1169111121012117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:26 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Honcharenko to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Honcharenko above · Anatoliy Lysyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Serhii Honcharenko at 70.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Honcharenko 41–15 Anatoliy Lysyi Anatoliy Lysyi has won 15 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2670.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Honcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-15 in 56
Honcharenko
Correct
gap of 26 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Honcharenko 1190 vs Lysyi 1204
Lysyi
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Honcharenko 20% vs Lysyi 60%
Lysyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Honcharenko 30% vs Lysyi 50%
Lysyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Honcharenko -4 · Lysyi -1
Honcharenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Honcharenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoncharenko 1.363 / Lysyi 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Honcharenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245071
Honcharenko1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 110 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it87% 88 of 101
Lysyi3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 40 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoncharenko8wins
AwayLysyi2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHoncharenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoncharenko100%6 of 6
AwayLysyi50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Honcharenko6Lysyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Honcharenko6Lysyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Honcharenko6Lysyi4n = 10Honcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Honcharenko6Lysyi2n = 8Honcharenko took 6 of 8
S5Honcharenko2Lysyi1n = 3Honcharenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoncharenkoLysyiH − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.936.4+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoncharenkoLysyiBasisWin rate · lifetime431 / 845 vs 191 / 41951%45.6%431 / 845 vs 191 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoncharenkoHoncharenko 1.36/Lysyi 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Honcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Honcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko331111113A. Lysyi269890
WSep 28 · 08:30S. Honcharenko4111118113A. Lysyi33791161
WAug 31 · 07:30S. Honcharenko4011711113A. Lysyi24811231
WAug 30 · 07:30S. Honcharenko4051311113A. Lysyi371111871
WAug 24 · 08:30S. Honcharenko4514911113A. Lysyi301211521
WJul 26 · 09:00S. Honcharenko47911115113A. Lysyi4311981142
LJun 22 · 08:30S. Honcharenko4461181182A. Lysyi46116117113
WJun 14 · 07:30S. Honcharenko50119811113A. Lysyi4351111972
LJun 7 · 08:30S. Honcharenko375148101A. Lysyi46111211123
S. Honcharenko10
WOct 5 · 09:30S. Honcharenko2.3891111113O. Badanin1.53115791LOct 5 · 07:00S. Honcharenko1.25311871V. Hyriavyi3.7511211113LOct 5 · 06:00S. Honcharenko2.0011118632M. Zavoloka1.73971111113LOct 2 · 16:00A. Danylov3.25211113113S. Honcharenko1.3311891182LOct 2 · 14:30R. Sveshnykov1.5711119113S. Honcharenko2.25761161WOct 2 · 13:00S. Zherykhin4.5077100S. Honcharenko1.171111123WOct 2 · 12:00O. Levytskyi2.107411101S. Honcharenko1.6711118123LOct 1 · 10:29S. Honcharenko1.615127101V. Matviichuk2.20111011123WOct 1 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.1011114672S. Honcharenko1.67571111113LOct 1 · 07:30S. Honcharenko1.7359110M. Zavoloka2.001111133
A. Lysyi10
LOct 5 · 07:30A. Lysyi2.638890M. Zavoloka1.441111113WOct 5 · 06:30O. Badanin1.801211341A. Lysyi1.9114911113WOct 5 · 05:30A. Lysyi1.22121111123V. Hyriavyi4.001489101LOct 4 · 15:30V. Kurliuk1.2011114123A. Lysyi4.337511101WOct 4 · 14:30A. Lysyi3.001112463O. Levytskyi1.368101151LOct 4 · 13:30V. Simchuk1.20113119113A. Lysyi4.3341171142LOct 4 · 12:30A. Lysyi3.402990I. Sorochan1.301111113WSep 29 · 10:02A. Lysyi1.401111113E. Bakin2.759340WSep 29 · 09:00A. Lysyi2.101111113V. Matviichuk1.678370LSep 29 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.401111113A. Lysyi2.759890
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