TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Patalakha vs Eduard Populovskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211117411115116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:15 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Patalakha to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Patalakha above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 79 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Dmytro Patalakha at 64.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Patalakha 45–28 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 28 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:1564.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.4pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Patalakha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
45-28 in 73
Patalakha
Correct
gap of 17 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Patalakha 1444 vs Populovskyi 1399
Patalakha
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Patalakha 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Patalakha 40% vs Populovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Patalakha -1 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Patalakha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Patalakha form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPatalakha 1.444 / Populovskyi 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Patalakha)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276321
Patalakha1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 26 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it74% 14 of 19
Populovskyi2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 57 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePatalakha9wins
AwayPopulovskyi1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPatalakha leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePatalakha100%4 of 4
AwayPopulovskyi16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Patalakha4Populovskyi6n = 10Populovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Patalakha8Populovskyi2n = 10Patalakha took 8 of 10
S3Patalakha9Populovskyi1n = 10Patalakha took 9 of 10
S4Patalakha3Populovskyi2n = 5Patalakha took 3 of 5
S5Patalakha4Populovskyi0n = 4Patalakha took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPatalakhaPopulovskyiPatalakha − PopulovskyiBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.232.3+6.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPatalakhaPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 245 vs 343 / 71045.7%48.3%112 / 245 vs 343 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PatalakhaPatalakha 1.44/Populovskyi 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Patalakha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Patalakha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WOct 11 · 06:20D. Patalakha39211411113E. Populovskyi4011711562
WSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha331111113E. Populovskyi208570
WAug 2 · 04:30D. Patalakha42711112113E. Populovskyi3511561122
WAug 1 · 19:00D. Patalakha331111113E. Populovskyi161780
WJul 11 · 12:30D. Patalakha3961111113E. Populovskyi34117791
WJun 14 · 11:20D. Patalakha47611118113E. Populovskyi4511891162
WJun 13 · 14:50D. Patalakha341111123E. Populovskyi2899100
WJun 7 · 07:20D. Patalakha351113113E. Populovskyi2891180
WJun 6 · 14:50D. Patalakha511081111113E. Populovskyi4512119582
D. Patalakha10
LOct 11 · 11:50M. Stetsenko2.00111185133D. Patalakha1.73881111112LOct 11 · 10:50D. Patalakha1.80411871S. Solomko1.9111411113WOct 11 · 09:50D. Patalakha1.4491111113S. Baranskyi2.63118581LOct 11 · 08:20D. Patalakha1.80119127112B. Zaika1.915111011133LOct 10 · 18:30A. Martyniuk1.401111113D. Patalakha2.758790WOct 10 · 17:30A. Kovalenko1.831241441D. Patalakha1.83101116113WOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181LOct 10 · 12:00O. Osadchyi1.441211113D. Patalakha2.6310820LSep 27 · 10:48D. Patalakha3.40811111142O. Tymofeev1.30111337113
E. Populovskyi10
LOct 11 · 12:50S. Solomko1.17111110113E. Populovskyi4.50861211WOct 11 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.5081113113S. Baranskyi2.501171161WOct 11 · 09:20B. Zaika1.40981171E. Populovskyi2.7511113113WOct 11 · 07:20M. Stetsenko3.00571151E. Populovskyi1.3611118113LOct 10 · 19:00E. Populovskyi1.8387111192A. Kovalenko1.83111138103WOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181WOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492
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