TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Bohdan Zaika vs Eduard Populovskyi 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911811113711––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched: 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBohdan Zaika above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 70 set 4, 7-10 · our read held Bohdan Zaika at 70.7%
70 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Bohdan Zaika 18–9 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1970.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 0.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Zaika
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Zaika
Wrong
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaika 1511 vs Populovskyi 1382
Zaika
Wrong
both rated, 130 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaika 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaika 50% vs Populovskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaika +2 · Populovskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% · Strong (leans Zaika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaika form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaika 1.40 / Populovskyi 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Zaika)-0.7pp
Setka Cup · #13276308
Zaika1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 64 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Populovskyi2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 57 of 161
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaika7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZaika leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaika70%7 of 10
AwayPopulovskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaika10Populovskyi0n = 10Zaika took 10 of 10
S2Zaika5Populovskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Zaika6Populovskyi4n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S4Zaika5Populovskyi3n = 8Zaika took 5 of 8
S5Zaika1Populovskyi3n = 4Populovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaikaPopulovskyiZ − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match42.837.6+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaikaPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime284 / 565 vs 342 / 71150.3%48.1%284 / 565 vs 342 / 711Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaZaika 1.40/Populovskyi 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Populovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika4411911582E. Populovskyi47811611113
WSep 19 · 17:00B. Zaika4311119123E. Populovskyi388911101
LJul 19 · 09:20B. Zaika47117115132E. Populovskyi50511811153
WJun 6 · 18:50B. Zaika48119611113E. Populovskyi4781111892
WMay 31 · 18:50B. Zaika4211119113E. Populovskyi30961141
WMay 10 · 12:20B. Zaika331111113E. Populovskyi225890
WMay 9 · 19:50B. Zaika45111211113E. Populovskyi365101381
WApr 26 · 07:50B. Zaika4211911113E. Populovskyi32611961
WApr 19 · 12:50B. Zaika371511113E. Populovskyi2913970
LApr 18 · 18:50B. Zaika471110111052E. Populovskyi45512512113
B. Zaika10
LOct 11 · 10:20M. Stetsenko2.00138117113B. Zaika1.73111181172WOct 11 · 08:20D. Patalakha1.80119127112B. Zaika1.915111011133WOct 11 · 06:50B. Zaika1.7311713113S. Solomko2.003111161LOct 10 · 18:00O. Osadchyi1.40114118113B. Zaika2.7571181192LOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 16:00B. Zaika1.67126771D. Patalakha2.10101111113LOct 10 · 14:30B. Zaika1.531011681A. Martyniuk2.3812611113WOct 10 · 12:30B. Zaika1.7311146113A. Kovalenko2.006121181WSep 26 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.2551312101B. Zaika1.57111510113LSep 26 · 17:00B. Zaika2.63610100O. Tymofeev1.441112123
E. Populovskyi10
WOct 11 · 07:20M. Stetsenko3.00571151E. Populovskyi1.3611118113LOct 11 · 06:20D. Patalakha1.44211411113E. Populovskyi2.6311711562LOct 10 · 19:00E. Populovskyi1.8387111192A. Kovalenko1.83111138103WOct 10 · 17:00B. Zaika1.3611911582E. Populovskyi3.00811611113LOct 10 · 15:00O. Osadchyi1.251215133E. Populovskyi3.751013110WOct 10 · 14:00E. Populovskyi2.6311126103D. Patalakha1.447101181WOct 10 · 13:00A. Martyniuk1.36811591E. Populovskyi3.001171192LOct 9 · 12:50O. Mytsyk2.001111711113E. Populovskyi1.7313611492WOct 9 · 11:20E. Populovskyi1.3691111113M. Stetsenko3.00113741WOct 9 · 09:20V. Smyk1.917111081E. Populovskyi1.8011812113
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